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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of stroke and cerebrovascular diseases: The official journal of National Stroke Association >Development and Validation of A Model to Estimate Stroke Incidence in A Population
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Development and Validation of A Model to Estimate Stroke Incidence in A Population

机译：估计人群中风发生率的模型的开发和验证

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Stroke is a common condition with a substantial impact on health care. Using published epidemiological data, a mathematical model was created to predict annual stroke incidence in populations over 45 years old, utilizing age, gender, ethnicity, and stroke risk factor prevalence (hypertension, atrial fibrillation, diabetes, smoking, and ischemic heart disease). The purpose of this study is to assess the model's ability to reliably estimate the annual number of first strokes. The model was validated against two cohorts: the Northern Manhattan Stroke Study (NM), performed in 1995 and 1996, and the Copenhagen City Heart Study (CCHS), undertaken in 1980-84, 1984-88, and 1988-93. Both cohorts provided the actual number of first strokes for respective years and risk factor prevalence. The Mantel-Haenszel test compared actual to predicted incidence rates. The two cohorts differed in risk factor prevalences, size, and demographics. For all cohort groups/ years, the predicted number of annual first strokes was not statistically different from actual first stroke incidence (P > ,05), In NM, the actual number of first strokes compared to predicted was 7 versus 13 (P = .18) for 1995 and 9 versus 18 (P = .08) for 1996. Actual and predicted annual strokes in CCHS for the time frames 1980-83, 1984-88, and 1988-93 were 65 versus 69 (P = .73), 72 versus 87 (P = .23), and 75 versus 93 (P = .16), respectively. The model provides a tool for estimating annual first strokes within a population, with a tendency of bias toward overestimating the number of incident strokes. This evidence-based model may be utilized by health policy makers to predict stroke burden at a population level
机译：中风是一种普遍状况，会对医疗保健产生重大影响。利用已发布的流行病学数据，使用年龄，性别，种族和中风危险因素（高血压，心房颤动，糖尿病，吸烟和缺血性心脏病）患病率，创建一个数学模型来预测45岁以上人群的中风年发病率。这项研究的目的是评估该模型可靠地估计年度首次卒中次数的能力。该模型针对两个队列进行了验证：1995年和1996年进行的北曼哈顿中风研究（NM），以及1980-84年，1984-88年和1988-93年进行的哥本哈根市心脏研究（CCHS）。这两个队列均提供了相应年份的实际中风总数和危险因素患病率。 Mantel-Haenszel测试将实际发生率与预测发生率进行了比较。这两个队列在危险因素患病率，规模和人口统计学方面有所不同。对于所有队列组/年，年度首次卒中的预测数量与实际首次卒中发生率没有统计学差异（P> 0.05）。在新墨西哥州，与预测相比，实际首次卒中的实际数量为7对13（P =。 1995年为18），1996年为9（18）（P = 0.08）。1980-83年，1984-88和1988-93年期间CCHS的实际和预测的年中风分别为65对69（P = 0.73）分别为72对87（P = 0.23）和75对93（P = .16）。该模型提供了一种工具，可用于估计总体中的年度首次中风，并且倾向于偏高估计中风的次数。卫生政策制定者可以使用这种基于证据的模型来预测人群水平的中风负担

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