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首页> 外文期刊>Journal Of The South African Institute Of Mining & Metallurgy >Presidential address: Swimming with the black swan
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Presidential address: Swimming with the black swan

机译：总统致辞：和黑天鹅一起游泳

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The idea of the 'Black Swan' comes from the fact that prior to the discovery of Australia, it was assumed by the medieval Europeans that are all swans were white, because no European at the time had ever seen a black swan, even though these did exist. The sight of one black swan in Australia by the European explorers invalidated millennia of belief that all swans were white. However, in the context of Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a brilliant author of the book by the same name, a Black Swan is a metaphor referring to any event that is rare, has an extreme impact, and is explainable and predictable, but only in hindsight. Taleb points out to us how we confidently predict the future based upon; our past experiences when in reality we have no real idea what the future will bring. While we know that Black Swans are hugely disruptive and can radically alter the course of our future, we still allow them to enter our waters and disrupt our cosy plans with unexpected and devastating impact. Even though we can see how these black fowls have affected us and the majority of those living in our surroundings, whether positively or negatively, we continue to be blinded to their existence. Black Swans occur when there is a disjoint between what we know and what we think we know. This disjoint is fuelled by facets of our human psychology that make us overconfident in our pronouncement about the future. Despite the fact that we cannot forecast the future accurately in a world of Black Swans, this paper tries to point the reader to the fact that if we endeavour to keep our minds and eyes wide open, we should be able to identify the generators of Black Swans, and learn to mitigate their impact. We should be able to swim with the Black Swan.
机译：“黑天鹅”的想法源于以下事实：在澳大利亚被发现之前，中世纪的欧洲人认为所有天鹅都是白色的，因为当时没有欧洲人见过黑天鹅，即使这些确实存在。欧洲探险家在澳大利亚看到一只黑天鹅，使千年来所有天鹅都是白色的信念无效。然而，在纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布（Nassim Nicholas Taleb）的同名书中，黑天鹅是一个隐喻，它指的是任何罕见，具有极端影响，可解释和可预测的事件，但只能事后考虑。 。 Taleb向我们指出了我们如何自信地预测未来;我们过去的经验，而现实中我们没有真正的想法，未来会带来什么。尽管我们知道黑天鹅具有极大的破坏力，并且可以从根本上改变我们的未来进程，但我们仍然允许它们进入我们的水域，并以意想不到的破坏性影响破坏我们的舒适计划。即使我们可以看到这些黑鸟如何对我们以及周围环境中的大多数人产生积极或消极的影响，我们仍然对它们的存在不知情。当我们所知道的与我们所认为的知道之间存在脱节时，就会出现黑天鹅。人类心理的各个方面加剧了这种脱节，使我们对未来的声明过于自信。尽管我们无法准确预测布莱克天鹅世界的未来，但本文还是试图向读者指出这样一个事实：如果我们努力保持思想开放，我们应该能够确定布莱克天鹅的产生者天鹅，并学会减轻其影响。我们应该能够和黑天鹅一起游泳。

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