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首页> 外文期刊>Climatic Change >Modeling climate change and biophysical impacts of crop production in the Austrian Marchfeld region.
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Modeling climate change and biophysical impacts of crop production in the Austrian Marchfeld region.

机译：模拟奥地利马格菲德地区的气候变化和农作物生产的生物物理影响。

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Climate change affects major biophysical processes in agricultural crop production (e.g. evaporation of plants and soils, nutrient cycles, and growth of plants). This analysis aims to assess some of these effects by simulating regional climate projections that are integrated in the biophysical process model EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate). Statistical climate models have been developed for six weather parameters based on daily weather records of a weather station in the Austrian Marchfeld region from 1975 to 2006. These models have been used to estimate daily weather parameters for the period 2007-2038. The resulting projections have been compared to climate scenarios provided from the TYNDALL Centre for Climate Change Research, which are based on General Circulation Models (GCMs). The comparison indicates some differences, namely a smaller temperature increase and a higher precipitation amount in the TYNDALL data. Both climate datasets have been used to simulate impacts of climate change on crop yields, topsoil organic carbon content, and nitrate leaching with EPIC and thus to perform a sensitivity analysis of EPIC. Yield impacts have been assessed for four simulated crops, i.e. 6.2 t/ha for winter wheat for statistical climate projections compared to 5.7 t/ha for TYNDALL scenarios, 10.6 t/ha for corn compared to 10.5 t/ha, 3.9 t/ha for sunflower compared to 3.7 t/ha, and 4.5 t/ha for spring barley compared to 4.3 t/ha - all values as an average over the period 2007-2038. Smaller differences have been simulated for topsoil organic carbon content i.e. 55.1 t/ha for the statistical climate projections compared to 55.3 t/ha for the TYNDALL scenarios and nitrate leaching i.e. 7.1 kg/ha compared to 11.1 kg/ha. All crop yields as well as topsoil organic carbon content and nitrate leaching show highest sensitivity to temperature and solar radiation.
机译：气候变化会影响农业作物生产中的主要生物物理过程（例如，植物和土壤的蒸发，养分循环以及植物的生长）。该分析旨在通过模拟集成在生物物理过程模型EPIC（环境政策集成气候）中的区域气候预测来评估其中一些影响。基于1975年至2006年奥地利马尔凯费尔德地区某个气象站的每日天气记录，已经针对六个天气参数开发了统计气候模型。这些模型已用于估算2007-2038年期间的每日天气参数。将得出的预测结果与TYNDALL气候变化研究中心提供的气候情景进行了比较，该情景基于通用循环模型（GCM）。比较表明在TYNDALL数据中存在一些差异，即温度升高较小和降水量较高。这两个气候数据集都已被用来模拟气候变化对作物产量，表层土壤有机碳含量以及利用EPIC进行硝酸盐浸出的影响，从而进行了EPIC的敏感性分析。已经评估了四种模拟作物的产量影响，即统计气候预测的冬小麦为6.2吨/公顷，而TYNDALL情景为5.7吨/公顷，玉米为10.6吨/公顷，而玉米为10.5吨/公顷，玉米为3.9吨/公顷。向日葵则为3.7吨/公顷，而大麦为4.5吨/公顷，相比之下为4.3吨/公顷-所有数值均为2007-2038年期间的平均值。模拟的表土有机碳含量差异较小，即统计气候预测为55.1吨/公顷，而TYNDALL情景为55.3吨/公顷，硝酸盐浸出为7.1千克/公顷，相比之下11.1千克/公顷。所有作物的产量以及表土的有机碳含量和硝酸盐浸出均显示出对温度和太阳辐射的最高敏感性。

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