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Extreme hot summers in China in the CMIP5 climate models

机译：CMIP5气候模式的中国极端炎热夏季

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摘要

Given the severe impacts of hot summers on human and natural systems, we attempt to quantify future changes in extreme hot summer frequency in China using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) projections. Unlike previous studies focusing on fixed future time slices, we investigate the changes as a function of global mean temperature (GMT) rise. Analyses show that extreme hot summers (June-July-August mean temperature higher than 90% quantile of 1971-2000 climatology) are projected to occur at least 80% of the time across China with a GMT rise of 2 degrees C. The fraction of land area with extreme hot summers becoming the norm (median of future summer temperatures exceed the extreme) will increase from similar to 15 % with 0.5 degrees C of GMT rise to similar to 97 % with 2.5 degrees C GMT rise, which is much greater than for the global land surface as a whole. A distinct spatial pattern of the GMT rise threshold over which the local extreme hot summer first becomes the norm is revealed. When averaged over the country, the GMT rise threshold is 0.96 degrees C. Earth system models exhibit comparable results to climate system models, but with a relatively larger spread. Further analysis shows that the concurrence of hot and dry summers will increase significantly with the spatial structure of responses depending on the definition of drying. The increase of concurrent hot and dry conditions will induce potential droughts which would be more severe than those induced by only precipitation deficits.
机译：鉴于炎热夏季对人类和自然系统的严重影响，我们尝试使用耦合模型比较项目第5阶段（CMIP5）预测来量化中国极端炎热频率的未来变化。与先前针对固定的未来时间片的研究不同，我们研究的变化是全球平均温度（GMT）上升的函数。分析表明，在中国，极端炎热的夏季（6月，7月至8月的平均温度高于1971-2000年气候的90％的分位数）预计将在中国至少80％的时间发生，格林尼治标准时间（GMT）升高2摄氏度。极端炎热的夏季成为常态的土地面积（未来夏季温度的中位数超过极端值）将从GMT升高0.5摄氏度时的约15％增加到GMT升高2.5摄氏度时的97％，这远大于整体而言。揭示了GMT上升阈值的独特空间格局，在该格局中，局部极端炎热的夏季首先成为常态。当在全国平均时，格林尼治标准时间的上升阈值为0.96摄氏度。地球系统模型的结果与气候系统模型可比，但分布范围相对较大。进一步的分析表明，炎热和干燥的夏季的并发将根据响应的空间结构而显着增加，具体取决于干燥的定义。同时炎热和干燥条件的增加将诱发潜在的干旱，这将比仅由降水不足引起的干旱更为严重。

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