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Perceived and projected flood risk and adaptation in coastal Southeast Queensland, Australia

机译：澳大利亚昆士兰州东南沿海地区的感知和预测的洪水风险及适应

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Evidence on the impacts of climate change is rapidly increasing but there is little change to the speed of climate adaptation by governments and individuals. There are multiple barriers to climate adaptation, including among others: the lack of the public understanding of risks, lack of leadership and availability of resources to adapt. In this study, we assess to what extent coastal residents understand their properties' flood risk, and what predicts their risk perception and adaptation behaviour. We surveyed 420 individuals in South East Queensland projected to be within the permanent or temporary flood zone in 2100 based on combined sea-level rise and storm surge scenarios. We assessed the correlations between the projected (i.e. objective) and perceived risk of inundation, adaptation behaviour, and the individual characteristics considered to influence risk perception and adaptation. While we found a correlation between perceived and some objective flood risks, perceived risk only partially reflected objective risk. Other factors that influenced risk perception were previous experience of flooding events, belief in climate change, risk aversion, age and gender. Factors driving risk perception varied with the type (permanent, temporary) and frequency of flooding event (1 in 20 or 1 in 100 years). Previous experience with extreme event impacts and belief in climate change influenced all future perceived risks. However, even after being impacted by an extreme event, adaptation was moderate (58 %). Personal as well as environmental factors influence the likelihood of adaptation. The moderate adaptation response within our case study is likely a result of most respondents considering large flooding events to be rare and of limited impact, and anticipating future government aid to overcome flooding damage costs. Existing attitudes towards risk, which influence the extent of proactive adaptation, should be of concern to governments who will likely be facing these costs at increasing frequencies.
机译：关于气候变化影响的证据正在迅速增加，但政府和个人对气候适应速度的变化却很小。气候适应存在多种障碍，其中包括：公众对风险的了解不足，缺乏领导能力以及缺乏适应资源。在这项研究中，我们评估沿海居民在多大程度上了解其财产的洪水风险，以及什么能预测他们的风险感知和适应行为。根据海平面上升和风暴潮的综合情况，我们对昆士兰州东南部的420个人进行了调查，预计他们将在2100年成为永久性或临时性洪水区。我们评估了预计（即目标）与被淹没风险，适应行为的风险以及被认为影响风险感知和适应的个体特征之间的相关性。尽管我们发现感知洪水风险与某些客观洪水风险之间存在相关性，但感知风险仅部分反映了客观风险。影响风险感知的其他因素是洪水事件的先前经验，对气候变化的信念，规避风险，年龄和性别。驱使人们感知风险的因素随洪水事件的类型（永久性，临时性）和发生频率（20年中的1分或100年中的1分）而变化。以往有关极端事件影响和对气候变化的信念的经验影响了所有未来可感知的风险。但是，即使受到极端事件的影响，适应性还是中等的（58％）。个人和环境因素都会影响适应的可能性。在我们的案例研究中，适度的适应性响应可能是大多数受访者认为大型洪灾事件罕见且影响有限，并期望未来政府提供援助来克服洪灾破坏成本的结果。影响前瞻性适应程度的现有风险态度应引起政府的关注，因为它们可能会越来越频繁地面临这些成本。

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