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首页> 外文期刊>Climatic Change >International climate policy: a 'second best' solution for a 'second best' world?
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International climate policy: a 'second best' solution for a 'second best' world?

机译：国际气候政策：为“次优”世界提供“次优”解决方案？

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In the current political environment, it is highly unlikely that all countries will agree to take on immediate commitments to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. In particular, developing countries will look to their wealthier neighbors to be the 'first movers.' In this paper, we assume that developing countries will eventually accede to an international emission reductions regime under two alternative scenarios. In the first, the decision on the part of developing countries to join the coalition is not made until just before accession. There is no planning to reconfigure their capital stock in advance of joining the coalition. In the second, we assume that developing countries commit to prespecified reductions beginning at an agreed upon date in the future; that is, they anticipate accession. We find that with an agreement now to future reductions, developing countries will modify their technology investment decisions in advance of accession to avoid being saddled with costly stranded assets, substantially reducing their GDP losses. Developed countries also benefit from not having to make as drastic reductions in the near-term to preserve the feasibility of stringent stabilization goals.
机译：在当前的政治环境下，所有国家极不可能同意立即作出承诺以减少其温室气体排放。特别是，发展中国家将把他们较富有的邻国视为“先行者”。在本文中，我们假设发展中国家最终将在两种替代情况下加入国际减排体系。首先，直到加入世贸组织之前，发展中国家才决定加入该联盟。没有计划在加入联盟之前重新配置其资本存量。第二，我们假设发展中国家承诺在未来的商定日期开始预先规定的减排量;也就是说，他们期望加入。我们发现，根据现在就未来减少排放量达成的协议，发展中国家将在加入世界贸易组织前修改其技术投资决定，以避免因昂贵的搁浅资产而受累，从而大大减少了其国内生产总值的损失。发达国家也不必从短期内大幅度削减成本以保持严格的稳定目标的可行性，从而受益。

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