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Delayed carbon sequestration and rising carbon prices

机译：碳固存延迟和碳价上涨

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We set out a dynamic model to investigate optimal time paths of emissions, carbon stocks and carbon sequestration by land conversion, allowing for non-instantaneous carbon sequestration. Previous research in a dynamic general equilibrium framework, assuming instantaneous carbon sequestration, has shown that land conversion should take place as soon as possible. On the contrary, previous research within a partial equilibrium framework has shown that, with increasing carbon prices, it is optimal to delay carbon sequestration through land conversion. We show that land use change alternatives, e.g. reforestation, have to be used as soon as possible before the singular path is reached, i.e. the unique trajectory that brings the system to the steady-state. We also show that faster increasing carbon prices can induce a reduction in the rate of reforestation, and that this may take place after an initial phase of increased reforestations or even immediately, depending upon the shape of the increase in carbon prices. Finally, we show that the type of species used is relevant and that the land conversion rate gets smaller the longer it takes the trees to grow. We analyze four different carbon accounting methods, describing the conditions that make them efficient and discussing the comparative advantages of each of them.
机译：我们建立了一个动态模型，以研究通过土地转换实现的排放，碳储量和碳固存的最佳时间路径，从而实现非瞬时碳固存。以前在动态一般平衡框架下进行的研究（假设瞬时碳固存）表明，土地转化应尽快进行。相反，先前在部分均衡框架内进行的研究表明，随着碳价格的上涨，通过土地转换延迟碳固存的最佳做法。我们展示了土地利用变化的替代方案，例如重新造林，必须在达到奇异路径之前尽快使用，即使系统进入稳态的独特轨迹。我们还表明，更快的碳价格上涨会导致植树造林率下降，并且这可能在植树造林增加的初始阶段甚至是紧随其后的情况下发生，具体取决于碳价上涨的形式。最后，我们证明所使用的物种类型是相关的，并且树木生长所需的时间越长，土地转化率就越小。我们分析了四种不同的碳核算方法，描述了使它们有效的条件，并讨论了每种方法的比较优势。

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