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Recent tree-growth reduction in north central China as a combined result of a weakened monsoon and atmospheric oscillations

机译:季风减弱和大气波动共同导致中国中部北部最近的树木生长减少

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Tree-ring records are a valuable source of information for understanding long-term, regional-scale drought changes. In this study, a tree ring width chronology spanning the last 330 years (A.D. 1681–2010) is developed for the northern fringe of the Asian summer monsoon in north central China based on tree ring widths of the Chinese pine (Pinus tabulaeformis) at three sites in the Hasi Mountain (HSM). An annual (running from the previous August to the present July) Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) series is reconstructed for the period A.D. 1698 to 2010 using a linear regression model. This reconstruction accounts for 49 % of the actual PDSI variance during the calibration period (A.D.1951–2005). During the last past 330 years, the year 1759 drought was the most severe and the 1926–1932 drought was the most long-lasting. These drought episodes resulted in huge economic losses and severe famine. Similar periods of drought are also found in the Great Bend of the Yellow River region, northeastern Tibetan Plateau and northern China. Our drought reconstruction is consistent with the dry-wet index derived from historical documents for the Great Bend of the Yellow River region for the last three centuries, revealing that our annual PDSI reconstruction reflects broad-scale climate anomalies and represents drought variations in the northern fringe of the Asian summer monsoon. The PDSI reconstruction correlates significantly with sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and northern Indian Ocean at an annual timescale, implying that El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation and the Indian monsoon might be influencing drought variability in the study area. Some extremely dry years of 1707, 1764, 1837, 1854, 1878, 1884, 1926 and 1932 coincided with major El Ni?o events in historical times. The decadal-scale variability is linked to Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and SST variations in the Atlantic Ocean. The observed recent tree growth reduction is unusual when viewed from a long-term perspective.
机译:树木年轮记录是了解长期,区域性干旱变化的宝贵信息来源。在这项研究中,根据中国松树(Pinus tabulaeformis)在三点的年轮宽度,为中国中部亚洲夏季风的北边缘开发了一个近330年(公元1681–2010年)的年轮宽度年表。哈西山(HSM)中的站点。使用线性回归模型重建了公元1698年至2010年期间的年度(从去年8月到现在的7月)帕尔默干旱严重程度指数(PDSI)系列。在校准期间(A.D.1951-2005),这种重建占实际PDSI变化的49%。在过去的330年中,1759年的干旱是最严重的,而1926–1932年的干旱是持续时间最长的。这些干旱事件造成了巨大的经济损失和严重的饥荒。在黄河大弯,青藏高原东北部和中国北方也发现了类似的干旱时期。我们的干旱重建与过去三个世纪黄河大弯的历史文献得出的干湿指数一致,这表明我们的年度PDSI重建反映了广泛的气候异常并代表了北部边缘地区的干旱变化亚洲夏季风。 PDSI重建与赤道东太平洋和印度洋北部的海表温度(SST)在每年的时间尺度上显着相关,这意味着厄尔尼诺-南方涛动和印度季风可能正在影响研究区域的干旱变化。 1707年,1764年,1837年,1854年,1878年,1884年,1926年和1932年是极度干旱的时期,恰逢历史上的主要厄尔尼诺事件。年代际尺度的变化与大西洋的太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)和海表温度变化有关。从长期的角度来看,最近观察到的树木生长减少是不寻常的。

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