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Venomous snakes and climate change: ophidism as a dynamic problem

机译：毒蛇与气候变化：自负是一个动态问题

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摘要

Snakebite envenoming is an important public health problem worldwide and addressing this issue has turned into a challenge for applied science. In this sense, the study of the distributional patterns of problematic snakes is central in terms of public health. Global Climate Change is affecting the distributional ranges of snakes, so that decisions regarding treatment of ophidism (poisoning by snake venom) may also change spatially and/or temporally. Here, we assessed suitable climate spaces at present conditions and estimated potential future changes in the distributions of the five southernmost venomous snakes, responsible for almost 99 % of accidents in Argentina, by implementing an ensemble of forecasts between different algorithms and scenarios for 2030 and 2080. Present suitable climate spaces showed high concordance with known distribution of the species. Future projections show moderate "north to south" displacements of the snakes' suitable climate spaces, implying potential increments of suitable spaces in human populated areas in Argentina. Our results suggest the necessity of considering ophidism as a dynamic problem. In this regard, the analyses implemented here are useful tools in improving the assessment of snakebite envenoming in light of global climate change.
机译：蛇咬毒瘾是全世界重要的公共卫生问题，解决这一问题已成为应用科学的一项挑战。从这个意义上讲，对有问题的蛇的分布方式的研究对于公共卫生而言是至关重要的。全球气候变化正在影响蛇的分布范围，因此有关治疗ophophism（蛇毒中毒）的决定也可能在空间和/或时间上发生变化。在这里，我们通过对2030年和2080年不同算法和情景之间的预测进行合计，评估了当前条件下的合适气候空间，并估计了造成阿根廷近99％事故的5条最南端有毒蛇的分布的潜在未来变化。 。目前合适的气候空间与该物种的已知分布高度一致。未来的预测表明，蛇的适当气候空间将从北到南发生适度的位移，这意味着阿根廷人口密集地区的适当空间可能会增加。我们的结果表明必须考虑将ophophism作为一个动态问题。在这方面，根据全球气候变化，这里进行的分析是改善蛇咬毒害评估的有用工具。

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