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The unseen uncertainties in climate change: reviewing comprehension of an IPCC scenario graph

机译：气候变化中看不见的不确定性：审查IPCC方案图的理解

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The reports published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are comprehensive assessments of the scientific knowledge and uncertainties surrounding climate projections. They combine well-formed language with supporting graphical evidence and have the objective to inform policymakers. One of the most discussed and widely distributed visual in these reports is the graph, showing the global surface temperature evolution for the 21st century as simulated by climate models for various emission scenarios, which is part of the Summary for Policymakers (SPM) and the Working Group I contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). It displays two types of uncertainties, namely the socio-economic scenarios and response uncertainty due to imperfect knowledge and models. Through 43 in-depth interviews this graph and caption was empirically tested with a sample of people analogous to the SPM target audience. It was found that novice readers were unable to identify the two different types of uncertainties in this graph without substantial guidance. Instead they saw a great deal of uncertainty but falsely attributed it to the climate model(s) and ignored the scenario uncertainties. Our findings demonstrate how the choice of display can directly impact a reader's perception of the scientific message. A failure to distinguish between these two types of uncertainties could lead to an overestimate of the response uncertainties, and an underestimation of socio-economic choices. We test this assumption and identify the difficulties non-technical audiences have with this graph and how this could inevitably impede its value as a decision support tool.
机译：政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）发布的报告是对围绕气候预测的科学知识和不确定性的综合评估。它们将格式正确的语言与支持的图形证据相结合，并旨在为决策者提供信息。这些报告中讨论最多，分布最广泛的视觉图形之一是该图，它显示了针对各种排放情景的气候模型模拟的21世纪全球地表温度演变，这是政策制定者摘要（SPM）和《工作报告》的一部分第一组对第四次评估报告（AR4）的贡献。它显示了两种类型的不确定性，即社会经济情景和由于知识和模型不完善而导致的响应不确定性。通过43次深度访谈，使用与SPM目标受众相似的人群样本对图和标题进行了经验测试。发现新手读者在没有实质性指导的情况下无法识别该图中的两种不同类型的不确定性。相反，他们看到了很多不确定性，但却错误地将其归因于气候模型，而忽略了情景不确定性。我们的发现表明，显示的选择如何直接影响读者对科学信息的理解。无法区分这两种类型的不确定性可能导致对响应不确定性的高估，并导致对社会经济选择的低估。我们测试了这个假设，并确定了非技术受众使用该图所遇到的困难，以及这将不可避免地阻碍其作为决策支持工具的价值。

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