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首页> 外文期刊>Climatic Change >Accounting for radiative forcing from albedo change in future global land-use scenarios
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Accounting for radiative forcing from albedo change in future global land-use scenarios

机译：考虑未来全球土地利用情景中反照率变化产生的辐射强迫

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摘要

We demonstrate the effectiveness of a new method for quantifying radiative forcing from land use and land cover change (LULCC) within an integrated assessment model, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). The method relies on geographically differentiated estimates of radiative forcing from albedo change associated with major land cover transitions derived from the Community Earth System Model. We find that conversion of 1 km(2) of woody vegetation (forest and shrublands) to non-woody vegetation (crops and grassland) yields between 0 and -0.71 nW/m(2) of globally averaged radiative forcing determined by the vegetation characteristics, snow dynamics, and atmospheric radiation environment characteristic within each of 151 regions we consider globally. Across a set of scenarios designed to span a range of potential future LULCC, we find LULCC forcing ranging from -0.06 to -0.29 W/m(2) by 2070 depending on assumptions regarding future crop yield growth and whether climate policy favors afforestation or bioenergy crops. Inclusion of this previously uncounted forcing in the policy targets driving future climate mitigation efforts leads to changes in fossil fuel emissions on the order of 1.5 PgC/yr by 2070 for a climate forcing limit of 4.5 Wm(-2), corresponding to a 12-67 % change in fossil fuel emissions depending on the scenario. Scenarios with significant afforestation must compensate for albedo-induced warming through additional emissions reductions, and scenarios with significant deforestation need not mitigate as aggressively due to albedo-induced cooling. In all scenarios considered, inclusion of albedo forcing in policy targets increases forest and shrub cover globally.
机译：我们在综合评估模型全球变化评估模型（GCAM）中展示了一种量化土地使用和土地覆盖变化（LULCC）辐射强迫的新方法的有效性。该方法依赖于地理差异的辐射强迫估算值，该估算值来自与从社区地球系统模型得出的主要土地覆盖变化相关的反照率变化。我们发现，将1 km（2）的木本植被（森林和灌木丛）转换为非木本植被（作物和草地）的结果是，植被特征决定了全球平均辐射强迫在0和-0.71 nW / m（2）之间我们在全球范围内考虑的151个区域中的每个区域的冰雪动力学和大气辐射环境特征。在一系列旨在涵盖未来潜在LULCC的场景中，我们发现，到2070年，LULCC的强迫范围从-0.06至-0.29 W / m（2），这取决于对未来作物产量增长的假设以及气候政策是否有利于造林或生物能源庄稼。在推动未来减缓气候变化的政策目标中加入了以前无法计数的强迫，到2070年，对于4.5 Wm（-2）的气候强迫限值，化石燃料排放量的变化约为1.5 PgC / yr，相当于12-化石燃料排放量变化67％，具体取决于情景。大量造林的情景必须通过额外减少排放量来补偿反照率引起的变暖，而大量毁林的情景不需要由于反照率引起的降温而大幅度地缓解。在考虑的所有情况下，将反照率强迫纳入政策目标可增加全球的森林和灌木覆盖率。

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