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首页> 外文期刊>Climatic Change >California perennial crops in a changing climate. (Special Issue: California second assessment: new climate change impact studies and implications for adaptation.)
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California perennial crops in a changing climate. (Special Issue: California second assessment: new climate change impact studies and implications for adaptation.)

机译：气候变化，加利福尼亚多年生作物。 （特刊：加利福尼亚第二次评估：新的气候变化影响研究及其对适应的影响。）

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Perennial crops are among the most valuable of California's diverse agricultural products. They are also potentially the most influenced by information on future climate, since individual plants are commonly grown for more than 30 years. This study evaluated the impacts of future climate changes on the 20 most valuable perennial crops in California, using a combination of statistical crop models and downscaled climate model projections. County records on crop harvests and weather from 1980 to 2005 were used to evaluate the influence of weather on yields, with a series of cross-validation and sensitivity tests used to evaluate the robustness of perceived effects. In the end, only four models appear to have a clear weather response based on historical data, with another four presenting significant but less robust relationships. Projecting impacts of climate trends to 2050 using historical relationships reveals that cherries are the only crop unambiguously threatened by warming, with no crops clearly benefiting from warming. Another robust result is that almond yields will be harmed by winter warming, although this effect may be counteracted by beneficial warming in spring and summer. Overall, the study has advanced understanding of climate impacts on California agriculture and has highlighted the importance of measuring and tracking uncertainties due to the difficulty of uncovering crop-climate relationships.
机译：多年生作物是加利福尼亚州多种农产品中最有价值的一种。由于单个植物通常生长超过30年，因此它们也可能受未来气候信息的影响最大。这项研究结合了统计作物模型和缩减的气候模型预测，评估了未来气候变化对加利福尼亚20种最有价值的多年生作物的影响。郡县从1980年至2005年的农作物收成和天气记录用于评估天气对单产的影响，并使用一系列交叉验证和敏感性测试来评估感知效果的稳健性。最后，根据历史数据，只有四个模型似乎具有清晰的天气响应，另外四个模型具有显着但不那么可靠的关系。利用历史关系预测到2050年气候趋势的影响表明，樱桃是唯一明确受到变暖威胁的作物，没有任何作物明显受益于变暖。另一个有力的结果是冬季增温会损害杏仁的产量，尽管春季和夏季的有利增温可能会抵消这种影响。总体而言，该研究对气候对加利福尼亚农业的影响有深入的了解，并强调了由于难以发现作物与气候之间的关系而测量和跟踪不确定性的重要性。

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