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首页> 外文期刊>Climatic Change >Effects of climate change on rice production in the tropical humid climate of Kerala, India.
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Effects of climate change on rice production in the tropical humid climate of Kerala, India.

机译：在印度喀拉拉邦热带潮湿气候中，气候变化对水稻生产的影响。

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The CERES-Rice v3. crop simulation model, calibrated and validated for its suitability to simulate rice production in the tropical humid climate Kerala State of India, is used for analysing the effect of climate change on rice productivity in the state. The plausible climate change scenario for the Indian subcontinent as expected by the middle of the next century, taking into account the projected emissions of greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols, in a coupled atmosphere-ocean model experiment performed at Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum, Germany, is adopted for the study. The adopted scenario represented an increase in monsoon seasonal mean surface temperature of the order of about 1.5deg C, and an increase in rainfall of the order of 2 mm per day, over the state of Kerala in the decade 2040-2049 with respect to the 1980s. The IPCC Business-as-usual scenario projection of plant usable concentration of CO2 about 460 ppm by the middle of the next century are also used in the crop model simulation. Onan average over the state with the climate change scenario studied, the rice maturity period is projected to shorten by 8% and yield increase by 12%. When temperature elevations only are taken into consideration, the crop simulations show a decrease of 8% in crop maturity period and 6% in yield. This shows that the increase in yield due to fertilisation effect of elevated CO2 and increased rainfall over the state as projected in the climate change scenario nearly makes up for the negative impact on riceyield due to temperature rise. The sensitivity experiments of the rice model to CO2 concentration changes indicated that over the state, an increase in CO2 concentration leads to yield increase due to its fertilisation effect and also enhance the wateruse efficiency of the paddy. The temperature sensitivity experiments have shown that for a positive change in temperature up to 5deg C, there is a continuous decline in the yield. For every one degree increment the decline in yield is about 6%. In another experiment it was observed that the physiological effect of ambient CO2 at 425 ppm concentration compensated for the yield losses due to increase in temperature up to 2deg C. Rainfall sensitivity experiments have shown that increase in rice yield due to increase in rainfall above the observed values is near exponential. Decrease in rainfall results in yield loss at a constant rate of about 8% per 2 mm/day, up to about 16 mm/day.
机译：CERES-Rice v3。经过校准和验证的作物模拟模型适用于模拟印度喀拉拉邦热带潮湿气候下的水稻生产，该模型用于分析气候变化对该邦水稻生产的影响。考虑到预计的温室气体和硫酸盐气溶胶的排放量，印度次大陆可能出现的气候变化情景是在下个世纪中叶进行的，该情景是在德国Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum进行的大气-海洋耦合模拟实验中采用的。研究。相对于喀拉拉邦，在2040年至2049年这十年间，采用的方案表示季风季节平均地表温度比喀拉拉邦增加了约1.5摄氏度，每天降雨量增加了约2毫米。 1980年代。在作物模型模拟中，也使用了IPCC照常进行的情景预测，即到下个世纪中叶，植物的可用二氧化碳浓度约为460 ppm。根据对气候变化情景的研究，该州的平均稻米成熟期预计将缩短8％，单产提高12％。当仅考虑温度升高时，作物模拟显示，作物成熟期降低了8％，单产降低了6％。这表明，气候变化情景中预测的由于二氧化碳浓度升高的施肥效应和全州降雨增加所导致的单产提高几乎可以弥补温度升高对水稻单产的不利影响。水稻模型对CO 2浓度变化的敏感性实验表明，在整个状态下，CO 2浓度的增加由于其施肥作用而导致产量增加，并且还提高了水稻的水分利用效率。温度敏感性实验表明，对于高达5摄氏度的正温度变化，产量会不断下降。每增加1度，产量下降约6％。在另一个实验中，观察到浓度为425 ppm的环境CO2的生理效应可以补偿由于温度升高至2摄氏度而导致的产量损失。降雨敏感性实验表明，由于降雨量增加而导致稻米产量增加，高于观测值值接近指数。降雨的减少导致产量损失，恒定损失率为每2毫米/天约8％，最高到约16毫米/天。

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