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首页> 外文期刊>Climatic Change >Predicting the potential distribution of Lantana camara L. under RCP scenarios using ISI-MIP models
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Predicting the potential distribution of Lantana camara L. under RCP scenarios using ISI-MIP models

机译：使用ISI-MIP模型预测RCP场景下马Lan丹的潜在分布

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Projections of anthropogenically-induced global climate change and its impacts on potential distributions of invasive species are crucial for implementing effective conservation and management strategies. Lantana camara L., a popular ornamental plant native to tropical America, has become naturalized in some 50 countries and is considered one of the world's worst weeds. To increase our understanding of its potential extent of spread and examine the responses of global geographic distribution, predictive models incorporating global distribution data of L. camara were generated. These models were used to identify areas of environmental suitability and project the effects of future climate change based on an ensemble of the four global climate models (GCMs) within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparis on Project (ISI-MIP). Each model was run under the four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) using the Maximum entropy (Maxent) approach. Future model predictions through 2050 indicated an overall expansion of L. camara, despite future suitability varying considerably among continents. Under the four RCP scenarios, the range of L. camara expanded further inland in many regions (e.g. Africa, Australia), especially under the RCP85 emission scenario. The global distribution of L. camara, though restricted within geographical regions of similar latitude as at present (35A degrees N similar to 35A degrees S), was projected to expand equator-ward in response to future climate conditions. Considerable discrepancy in predicted environmental suitability for L. camara among GCMs highlights the complexities of the likely effects of climate change on its potential distribution and the need to improve the reliability of predictions in novel climates.
机译：人为引起的全球气候变化及其对入侵物种潜在分布的影响的预测对于实施有效的保护和管理战略至关重要。马tana丹（Lantana camara L.）是一种流行的观赏植物，起源于美国热带地区，已在约50个国家/地区归化，被认为是世界上最严重的杂草之一。为了加深我们对其潜在传播程度的了解并检查全球地理分布的响应，生成了包含金枪鱼全球分布数据的预测模型。这些模型用于根据项目间部门间影响模型之间的比较（ISI-MIP）中的四个全球气候模型（GCM）的集合来确定环境适宜性领域并预测未来气候变化的影响。每个模型均使用最大熵（Maxent）方法在四种排放情景（代表性浓度途径，RCP）下运行。到2050年的未来模型预测表明，尽管各大洲之间的未来适应性差异很大，但L. camara的总体扩张。在四种RCP方案下，camara的分布范围在许多地区（例如非洲，澳大利亚）进一步向内陆扩展，特别是在RCP85排放方案下。 camara L. camara的全球分布虽然局限于目前与之相似的纬度（N 35 A，北纬35 A）的地理区域内，但预计会随着未来的气候条件而向赤道方向扩展。在GCM中，对Camara L. camara的预测环境适应性的显着差异突出了气候变化对其潜在分布的可能影响的复杂性，以及提高新型气候预测的可靠性的需要。

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