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Cost estimation method based on parallel Monte Carlo simulation and market investigation for engineering construction project

机译：基于并行蒙特卡洛模拟和市场调查的工程建设项目成本估算方法

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摘要

In this paper, a new cost estimation method based on parallel Monte Carlo simulation and market investigation for the chemical engineering construction project is proposed to consider both the uncertainties of cost estimation and market drivers. The critical items of exerting large impacts on the cost estimation are selected by the market investigation. Then important critical items are chosen by the sensitivity analysis based on the parallel Monte-Carlo simulation combining with the Likert scale method from critical items. The Relative Important Indices and Normalized Important Indices are obtained according to the discipline and procurement experts' experience in the relative construction market. Then re-rankings of market drivers will be acted as guidelines for carrying out project cost simulations based on the parallel Monte-Carlo method, with inquired information of important critical items with more efficiency. An illustrative example in a petrochemical Engineering Procurement Construction contracting project in Saudi verified the validity and practicability of the proposed method.
机译：本文提出了一种基于并行蒙特卡洛模拟和市场调查的化工建设项目成本估算方法，该方法同时考虑了成本估算的不确定性和市场驱动因素。市场调查选择对成本估算产生重大影响的关键项目。然后，通过基于并行蒙特卡洛模拟的灵敏度分析并结合李克特量表方法从关键项目中选择重要的关键项目。相对重要指数和规范化重要指数是根据学科和采购专家在相关建筑市场中的经验而获得的。然后，将市场驱动力的重新排序作为基于并行蒙特卡洛方法进行项目成本模拟的指南，并以更高的效率查询重要的重要项目的信息。在沙特的一个石化工程采购建设承包项目中的一个说明性例子证明了该方法的有效性和实用性。

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