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Use of integrated modeling to enhance estimates of population dynamics obtained from limited data

机译：使用集成模型来增强从有限数据中获得的人口动态估计

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摘要

Demographic data of rare and endangered species are often too sparse to estimate vital rates and population size with sufficient precision for understanding population growth and decline. Yet, the combination of different sources of demographic data into one statistical model holds promise. We applied Bayesian integrated population modeling to demographic data from a colony of the endangered greater horseshoe bats (Rhinolophus ferrumequinum). Available data were the number of subadults and adults emerging from the colony roost at dusk, the number of newborns from 1991 to 2005, and recapture data of subadults and adults from 2004 and 2005. Survival rates did not differ between sexes, and demographic rates remained constant across time. The greater horseshoe bat is a long-lived species with high survival rates (first year: 0.49 [SD 0.06]; adults: 0.91 [SD 0.02]) and low fecundity (0.74 [SD 0.12]). The yearly average population growth was 4.4% (SD 0.1%) and there were 92 (SD 10) adults in the colony in year 2005. Had we analyzed each data set separately, we would not have been able to estimate fecundity, the estimates of survival would have been less precise, and the estimate of population growth biased. Our results demonstrate that integrated models are suitable for obtaining crucial demographic information from limited data.
机译：稀有和濒临灭绝物种的人口统计数据通常过于稀疏，无法以足够的精确度来估计生命率和种群数量，以了解种群的增长和下降。但是，将人口统计数据的不同来源组合到一个统计模型中有望实现。我们将贝叶斯综合人口模型应用于来自濒临灭绝的较大马蹄蝠（Rhinolophus ferrumequinum）的人口统计数据。现有数据包括黄昏时分从殖民地栖息的亚成人和成年人的数量，1991年至2005年的新生儿数量以及2004年至2005年亚成年人和成人的捕获数据。性别之间的存活率没有差异，人口统计率仍然跨时间不变。大马蹄蝠是长寿物种，存活率高（第一年：0.49 [SD 0.06];成年：0.91 [SD 0.02]），繁殖力低（0.74 [SD 0.12]）。 2005年该殖民地的年平均人口增长率为4.4％（SD 0.1％），有92位成年人（SD 10）。如果我们分别分析每个数据集，我们将无法估计生育力，生存本来就不那么精确，而且人口增长的估计也有偏差。我们的结果表明，集成模型适合从有限的数据中获取关键的人口统计信息。

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