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Climate change, elevational range shifts, and bird extinctions

机译：气候变化，海拔范围变化和鸟类灭绝

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Limitations imposed on species ranges by the climatic, ecological, and physiological effects of elevation are important determinants of extinction risk. We modeled the effects of elevational limits on the extinction risk of landbirds, 87% of all bird species. Elevational limitation of range size explained 97% of the variation in the probability of being in a World Conservation Union category of extinction risk. Our model that combined elevational ranges, four Millennium Assessment habitat-loss scenarios, and an intermediate estimate of surface warming of 2.8 degrees C, projected a best guess of 400-550 landbird extinctions, and that approximately 2150 additional species would be at risk of extinction by 2100. For Western Hemisphere landbirds, intermediate extinction estimates based on climate-induced changes in actual distributions ranged from 1.3% (1.1 degrees C warming) to 30.0% (6.4 degrees C warming) of these species. Worldwide, every degree of warming projected a nonlinear increase in bird extinctions of about 100-500 species. Only 21% of the species predicted to become extinct in our scenarios are currently considered threatened with extinction. Different habitat-loss and surface-warming scenarios predicted substantially different futures for landbird species. To improve the precision of climate-induced extinction estimates, there is an urgent need for high-resolution measurements of shifts in the elevational ranges of species. Given the accelerating influence of climate change on species distributions and conservation, using elevational limits in a tested, standardized, and robust manner can improve conservation assessments of terrestrial species and will help identify species that are most vulnerable to global climate change. Our climate-induced extinction estimates are broadly similar to those of bird species at risk from other factors, but these estimates largely involve different sets of species.
机译：海拔升高的气候，生态和生理效应对物种范围造成的限制是物种灭绝风险的重要决定因素。我们模拟了海拔限制对陆鸟（占所有鸟类的87％）灭绝风险的影响。范围大小的简单限制解释了世界自然保护联盟灭绝风险类别中概率的97％的变化。我们的模型结合了海拔范围，四个千年评估栖息地损失情景以及对地表温度2.8摄氏度的中间估计，预测了400-550种陆鸟灭绝的最佳猜测，并且大约还有2150种物种将面临灭绝的风险到2100年。对于西半球陆鸟，基于气候引起的实际分布变化的中间灭绝估计范围为这些物种的1.3％（变暖1.1摄氏度）到30.0％（变暖6.4摄氏度）。在世界范围内，每一个变暖程度都预示着大约100-500种鸟类灭绝的非线性增加。在我们的情景中，预计只有21％的物种将灭绝，目前被认为已濒临灭绝。不同的生境丧失和表面变暖情景预测了陆鸟物种的未来大不相同。为了提高气候导致的灭绝估计的精度，迫切需要对物种海拔范围变化的高分辨率测量。鉴于气候变化对物种分布和保护的影响日益加剧，以经过测试，标准化和可靠的方式使用海拔极限可以改善陆生物种的保护评估，并有助于确定最容易受到全球气候变化影响的物种。我们的气候导致的灭绝估计与其他因素可能威胁的鸟类大致相似，但是这些估计在很大程度上涉及不同种类的物种。

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