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Inconclusiveness of chytridiomycosis as the agent in widespread frog declines

机译：乳糜菌病在广泛的青蛙衰落中是不确定的

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Although there is considerable evidence to support the hypothesis that the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis is the primary agent responsible for widespread declines in amphibian populations, particularly rainforest frog populations in Australia and Central America, I argue the case has not yet been made conclusively. Few specimens were collected at the time of population declines, so it may never be possible to conclusively determine their cause. It remains unclear whether the pathogen is novel where declines have occurred. Although it is not necessary that the infection be novel for it to be implicated in declines, if a preexisting pathogen has only recently caused extinctions, cofactors must be important. Whether the pattern of outbreaks represents a "wave" of extinctions is unclear, but if it does, the rate of spread in Australia is implausibly high for a waterborne pathogen, given the most likely estimates of epidemiological parameters. Although B. dendrobatidis is an amphibian pathogen according to Koch's postulates, the postulates are neither necessary nor sufficient criteria to identify a pathogen. The following key pieces of information are necessary to better understand the impact of this fungus on frog communities: better knowledge of the means and rate of transmission under field conditions, prevalence of infection among frog populations, as distinct from morbid individuals, and the effect of the fungus on frogs in the wild. It is crucial to determine whether there are strains of the fungus with differing pathogenicity to particular frog species and whether host-pathogen coevolution has occurred or is occurring. Recently developed diagnostic tools bring into reach the possibility of addressing these questions and thus developing appropriate strategies to manage frog communities that may be affected by this fungus.
机译：尽管有足够的证据支持这种说法，即乳糜菌Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis是造成两栖动物种群特别是澳大利亚和中美洲雨林蛙种群大量减少的主要因素，但我认为此案尚未得到结论。人口减少时很少收集标本，因此可能永远无法最终确定其原因。目前尚不清楚病原体是否是新颖的，在哪里下降了。尽管并不一定需要新颖的感染才能导致其下降，但是如果现有的病原体只是最近才引起灭绝，则辅因子必须很重要。目前尚不清楚暴发的形式是否代表灭绝的“浪潮”，但如果确实如此，考虑到最可能的流行病学估计，水传播的病原体在澳大利亚的扩散速度实在令人难以置信。尽管根据科赫的假设，B。dendrobatidis是两栖类病原体，但该假想既不是识别病原体的必要标准，也不是充分标准。为了更好地了解这种真菌对青蛙群落的影响，以下关键信息是必不可少的：更好地了解田间条件下的传播方式和传播速度，与病态个体不同的青蛙种群中感染的流行率以及在野外青蛙身上的真菌。确定是否存在对特定青蛙物种具有不同致病性的真菌菌株，以及是否已经发生或正在发生宿主-病原体协同进化至关重要。最近开发的诊断工具使人们有可能解决这些问题，从而开发出适当的策略来管理可能受到这种真菌影响的青蛙群落。

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