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The Future of Scattered Trees in Agricultural Landscapes

机译：农业景观中树木零散的未来

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Mature trees scattered throughout agricultural landscapes are critical habitat for some biota and provide a range of ecosystem services. These trees are declining in intensively managed agricultural landscapes globally. We developed a simulation model to predict the rates at which these trees are declining, identified the key variables that can be manipulated to mitigate this decline, and compared alternative management proposals. We used the initial numbers of trees in the stand, the predicted ages of these trees, their rate of growth, the number of recruits established, the frequency of recruitment, and the rate of tree mortality to simulate The dynamics of scattered trees in agricultural landscapes. We applied this simulation model to case studies from Spain, United States, Australia, and Costa Rica. We predicted that mature trees would be lost from these landscapes in 90-180 years tinder current management Existing management recommendations for these landscapes-which focus on increasing recruitment-would not reverse this trend. The loss of scattered mature trees was most sensitive to tree mortality, stand age, number of recruits, and frequency of recruitment. We predicted that perpetuating nature trees in agricultural landscapes at or above existing densities requires a strategy that keeps mortality among established trees below around 0.5% per year, recruits new trees at a rate that is higher than the number of existing trees, and recruits new trees at a frequency in years equivalent to around 15% of the maximum life, expectancy of trees. Numbers of mature trees in landscapes represented by the case studies will decline before they increase, even if strategies of this type are implemented immediately. This decline will be greater if a management response is delayed.
机译：遍布农业景观的成熟树木是某些生物区系的重要栖息地，并提供一系列生态系统服务。在全球密集管理的农业景观中，这些树木正在减少。我们开发了一个仿真模型，以预测这些树木下降的速率，确定可以操纵以减轻这种下降的关键变量，并比较其他管理建议。我们使用林分中的树木初始数量，树木的预计年龄，它们的生长速度，新兵的数量，新兵的招募频率以及树木死亡率来模拟农业景观中零散树木的动态。 。我们将此模拟模型应用于来自西班牙，美国，澳大利亚和哥斯达黎加的案例研究。我们预测，在90-180年间，这些景观将失去成熟的树木，这会阻碍当前的管理。针对这些景观的现有管理建议（侧重于增加招聘）不会扭转这种趋势。零散成熟树木的损失对树木死亡率，林分年龄，新兵数量和新兵频率最敏感。我们预测，要使农业景观中的自然树永久存在或高于现有密度，就需要采取一项策略，使既有树的死亡率保持在每年约0.5％以下，以高于现有树数量的速度招募新树，并招募新树以几年为单位的频率相当于树木预期寿命的15％左右。以案例研究为代表的景观中成熟树木的数量在增加之前就将减少，即使立即实施这种策略也是如此。如果管理层的回应被延迟，这种下降将更大。

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