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Emerging issues in population viability analysis [Review]

机译：人口生存力分析中出现的新问题[评论]

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Population viability analysis (PVA) has become a commonly used tool in endangered species management. There is no single process that constitutes PVA, but all approaches have in common all assessment of a population's risk of extinction (or quasi extinction) or its projected population growth either under current conditions or expected from proposed management. As model sophistication increases, and software programs that facilitate PVA without the need for modeling expertise become more available, there is greater potential for the misuse of models and increased confusion over interpreting their results. Consequently, we discuss the practical use and limitations of PVA in conservation planning, and we discuss some emerging issues of PVA. We review extant issues that have become prominent in PTA, including spatially explicit modeling, sensitivity analysis, incorporating genetics into PVA, PVA in plants, and PVA software packages, but our coverage of emerging issues is not comprehensive. We conclude that PVA is a powerful tool in conservation biology for comparing alternative research plans and relative extinction risks among species, but the suggest caution in its use: (1) because PVA is a model, its validity depends on the appropriateness of the model's structure and data quality; (2) results should be presented with appropriate assessment of confidence; (3) model construction and results should be subject to external review, and (4) model structure, input, and results should be treated as hypotheses to be tested. We also suggest (5) restricting the definition of PVA to development of a formal quantitative model, (6) focusing more research on determining how pervasive density-dependence feedback is across species, and (7) not using PVA to determine minimum population size or (8) the specific probability of reaching extinction. The most appropriate use of PVA may be for comparing the relative effects of potential management actions on population growth or persistence. [References: 145]
机译：种群生存力分析（PVA）已成为濒危物种管理的常用工具。没有构成PVA的单一过程，但是所有方法都共同评估了人口的灭绝风险（或半灭绝）或其在当前条件下或拟议管理中预期的人口增长。随着模型复杂程度的提高以及无需PVA建模专业知识即可促进PVA的软件程序越来越多，滥用模型的可能性就更大，并且在解释其结果时也越来越困惑。因此，我们讨论了PVA在保护规划中的实际用途和局限性，并讨论了PVA的一些新出现的问题。我们回顾了在PTA中变得突出的现存问题，包括空间显式建模，敏感性分析，将遗传学纳入PVA，植物中的PVA和PVA软件包，但是我们对新出现问题的报道并不全面。我们得出结论，PVA是保护生物学用于比较物种之间替代研究计划和相对灭绝风险的有力工具，但在使用时建议谨慎：（1）由于PVA是模型，其有效性取决于模型结构的适当性和数据质量; （2）应对结果进行适当的置信度评估; （3）模型的构建和结果应接受外部审查，（4）模型的结构，输入和结果应作为要检验的假设。我们还建议（5）将PVA的定义限制为开发正式的定量模型，（6）将更多的研究重点放在确定跨物种的普遍密度依赖性反馈上，以及（7）不使用PVA来确定最小种群数量或（8）灭绝的具体概率。 PVA的最适当用法可能是用于比较潜在管理措施对人口增长或持久性的相对影响。 [参考：145]

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