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Use of opportunistic sightings and expert knowledge to predict and compare Whooping Crane stopover habitat

机译：利用机会性目击和专家知识来预测和比较百日鹤中途停留的栖息地

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Predicting a species' distribution can be helpful for evaluating management actions such as critical habitat designations under the U.S. Endangered Species Act or habitat acquisition and rehabilitation. Whooping Cranes (Grus americana) are one of the rarest birds in the world, and conservation and management of habitat is required to ensure their survival. We developed a species distribution model (SDM) that could be used to inform habitat management actions for Whooping Cranes within the state of Nebraska (U.S.A.). We collated 407 opportunistic Whooping Crane group records reported from 1988 to 2012. Most records of Whooping Cranes were contributed by the public; therefore, developing an SDM that accounted for sampling bias was essential because observations at some migration stopover locations may be under represented. An auxiliary data set, required to explore the influence of sampling bias, was derived with expert elicitation. Using our SDM, we compared an intensively managed area in the Central Platte River Valley with the Niobrara National Scenic River in northern Nebraska. Our results suggest, during the peak of migration, Whooping Crane abundance was 262.2 (90% CI 40.2-3144.2) times higher per unit area in the Central Platte River Valley relative to the Niobrara National Scenic River. Although we compared only 2 areas, our model could be used to evaluate any region within the state of Nebraska. Furthermore, our expert-informed modeling approach could be applied to opportunistic presence-only data when sampling bias is a concern and expert knowledge is available.
机译：预测物种的分布有助于评估管理措施，例如《美国濒危物种法》规定的关键栖息地指定或栖息地获取与恢复。鹤（Grus americana）是世界上最稀有的鸟类之一，需要对栖息地进行保护和管理以确保其生存。我们开发了一种物种分布模型（SDM），可用于为内布拉斯加州（美国）的百日鹤的栖息地管理活动提供信息。我们整理了1988年至2012年期间报告的407个机会性百日鹤小组记录。因此，开发一个解决抽样偏差的SDM是必不可少的，因为在某些迁移中途停留地点的观察结果可能不足。专家启发得出了一个辅助数据集，该数据集是探索采样偏差影响所必需的。使用我们的SDM，我们将普拉特河中央谷地的集约化管理区域与内布拉斯加州北部的尼布拉拉国家风景区河进行了比较。我们的研究结果表明，在迁徙高峰期，中普拉特河谷的单位面积百日鹤丰度比尼布拉拉河国家风景区河高262.2倍（90％CI 40.2-3144.2）。尽管我们仅比较了两个区域，但我们的模型可用于评估内布拉斯加州的任何区域。此外，当关注采样偏差且专家知识可用时，我们的专家知情建模方法可以应用于机会仅存在数据。

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