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Characterization and prediction of sexual and nonsexual recidivism among adjudicated juvenile sex offenders

机译：受审判的少年性罪犯中性和非性累犯的特征和预测

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摘要

Estimating the risk of sexual recidivism for a juvenile sex offender is essential in order to protect public safety by identifying and evaluating high risk adolescents and to ensure the rights and welfare of juvenile offenders who will not likely reoffend. Empirically validated risk assessment methods are needed to aid in the classification and treatment of juvenile sex offenders. The present study utilized a dataset collected by Maricopa County, AZ, and aggregated by the National Juvenile Court Data Archive. The purpose of the study was to evaluate and characterize risk factors for juveniles who have been charged with a sexual offense in order to determine the predictive utility of these factors for subsequent offending, as well as offense trajectory, and to evaluate risk factors for nonsexual offenders who have committed crimes of various severities. The results of the present study show the strongest individual predictors of sexual recidivism to be prior nonsexual offending, prior sexual offending, hands-off offending, offending against a child, younger school grade/age at time of initial offense, Asian or Hispanic ethnicity, and not attending school. A preliminary screening measure was developed from the seven positive risk factors, and ROC analysis produced an AUC indicating moderate predictive utility in discriminating between juvenile sex offenders who would sexually reoffend and those who would not.
机译：为了确定和评估高危青少年以保护公共安全，并确保不太可能再度犯罪的未成年罪犯的权利和福祉，对未成年性罪犯进行性再犯的风险进行估算至关重要。需要经过经验验证的风险评估方法来帮助对少年性罪犯进行分类和治疗。本研究利用了亚利桑那州马里科帕县收集的数据集，并由国家少年法院数据档案馆进行了汇总。这项研究的目的是评估和表征被指控犯有性犯罪行为的少年的危险因素，以确定这些因素对随后犯罪的预测效用以及犯罪的轨迹，并评估非性犯罪者的危险因素犯有各种严重程度的罪行。本研究的结果表明，性累犯的最强个体预测因素是先前的非性犯罪，先前的性犯罪，无罪犯罪，针对儿童的犯罪，初犯时的学校年龄/年龄，亚洲或西班牙裔种族，而不是上学从这七个阳性风险因素中得出了初步的筛查措施，并且ROC分析得出了一个AUC，表明在区分有性犯罪的未成年性罪犯和没有性犯罪的未成年性罪犯之间具有中等预测效用。

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