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Statistical tests of simple earthquake cycle models

机译：简单地震周期模型的统计检验

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A central goal of observing and modeling the earthquake cycle is to forecast when a particular fault may generate an earthquake: a fault late in its earthquake cycle may be more likely to generate an earthquake than a fault early in its earthquake cycle. Models that can explain geodetic observations throughout the entire earthquake cycle may be required to gain a more complete understanding of relevant physics and phenomenology. Previous efforts to develop unified earthquake models for strike-slip faults have largely focused on explaining both preseismic and postseismic geodetic observations available across a few faults in California, Turkey, and Tibet. An alternative approach leverages the global distribution of geodetic and geologic slip rate estimates on strike-slip faults worldwide. Here we use the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for similarity of distributions to infer, in a statistically rigorous manner, viscoelastic earthquake cycle models that are inconsistent with 15 sets of observations across major strike-slip faults. We reject a large subset of two-layer models incorporating Burgers rheologies at a significance level of =0.05 (those with long-term Maxwell viscosities (M)similar to 4.6x10(20)Pas) but cannot reject models on the basis of transient Kelvin viscosity (K). Finally, we examine the implications of these results for the predicted earthquake cycle timing of the 15 faults considered and compare these predictions to the geologic and historical record.
机译：观察和模拟地震周期的中心目标是预测特定断层何时会引发地震：与地震周期早期的断层相比，地震周期后期的断层更可能产生地震。可能需要能够解释整个地震周期中的大地观测资料的模型，才能对相关的物理学和现象学有更全面的了解。以前为走滑断层开发统一地震模型的工作主要集中在解释在加利福尼亚，土耳其和西藏的几个断层上可获得的地震前和地震后大地观测。一种替代方法是利用大地和地质滑移率估计值的全球分布来分布全球的走滑断层。在这里，我们使用Kolmogorov-Smirnov检验的分布相似性，以统计学上严格的方式推断出粘弹性地震周期模型，该模型与跨主要走滑断层的15组观测值不一致。我们拒绝接受包含Burgers流变学且显着性水平= 0.05的两层模型的较大子集（那些长期麦克斯韦粘度（M）<类似于4.0x10（19）Pas和（M）>类似于4.6x10（ 20）Pas），但不能基于瞬态开尔文粘度（K）拒绝模型。最后，我们检查了这些结果对所考虑的15个断层的预测地震周期定时的影响，并将这些预测与地质和历史记录进行了比较。

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