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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences >Isoscapes of tree-ring carbon-13 perform like meteorological networks in predicting regional precipitation patterns
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Isoscapes of tree-ring carbon-13 perform like meteorological networks in predicting regional precipitation patterns

机译：树轮碳13的等值线在预测区域降水模式方面的作用类似于气象网络

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Stable isotopes in tree rings provide climatic information with annual resolution dating back for centuries or even millennia. However, deriving spatially explicit climate models from isotope networks remains challenging. Here we propose a methodology to model regional precipitation from carbon isotope discrimination (Δ~(13)C) in tree rings by (1) building regional spatial models of Δ~(13)C (isoscapes) and (2) deriving precipitation maps from Δ~(13)C-isoscapes, taking advantage of the response of Δ~(13)C to precipitation in seasonally dry climates. As a case study, we modeled the spatial distribution of mean annual precipitation (MAP) in the northeastern Iberian Peninsula, a region with complex topography and climate (MAP = 303-1086 mm). We compiled wood Δ~(13)C data for two Mediterranean species that exhibit complementary responses to seasonal precipitation (Pinus halepensis Mill., N = 38; Quercus ilex L.; N = 44; pooling period: 1975-2008). By combining multiple regression and geostatistical interpolation, we generated one Δ~(13) C-isoscape for each species. A spatial model of MAP was then built as the sum of two complementary maps of seasonal precipitation, each one derived from the corresponding Δ13C-isoscape (September-November from Q. ilex; December-August from P. halepensis). Our approach showed a predictive power for MAP (RMSE = 84 mm) nearly identical to that obtained by interpolating data directly from a similarly dense network of meteorological stations (RMSE = 80-83 mm, N = 65), being only outperformed when using a much denser meteorological network (RMSE = 56-57 mm, N = 340). This method offers new avenues for modeling spatial variability of past precipitation, exploiting the large amount of information currently available from tree-ring networks. Key Points Carbon-13 in tree-rings was modeled from topogeographic variables (isoscapes)Isoscape-derived precipitation maps can be as accurate as meteo-derived mapsThe method is extensible to other spatially-explicit paleoenvironmental proxies
机译：年轮中的稳定同位素可提供气候信息，其年度分辨率可追溯到几个世纪甚至几千年。然而，从同位素网络推导空间明确的气候模型仍然具有挑战性。在这里，我们提出了一种方法，该方法可通过（1）建立Δ〜（13）C（等值线）的区域空间模型和（2）从树环中获取降水图来模拟树环中碳同位素歧视（Δ〜（13）C）的区域降水。 Δ〜（13）C等值线，利用Δ〜（13）C对季节性干旱气候下降水的响应。作为案例研究，我们模拟了东北伊比利亚半岛（一个地形和气候复杂的地区（MAP = 303-1086 mm））的年平均降水量（MAP）的空间分布。我们收集了两个对季节性降水具有互补响应的地中海物种的木材Δ〜（13）C数据（Pinus halepensis Mill。，N = 38; Quercus ilex L.; N = 44;汇聚期：1975-2008）。通过将多元回归和地统计插值相结合，我们为每个物种生成了一个Δ〜（13）C等值线。然后建立MAP的空间模型，作为两个季节性降水补图的总和，每个补图都来自相应的Δ13C等值线（Q. ilex的9月至11月; P。halepensis的12月至8月）。我们的方法显示出MAP的预测能力（RMSE = 84 mm）与直接从类似密集的气象站网络（RMSE = 80-83 mm，N = 65）内插数据获得的预测能力几乎相同，仅在使用更密集的气象网络（RMSE = 56-57 mm，N = 340）。该方法利用树环网络当前提供的大量信息，为模拟过去降水的空间变化提供了新途径。树突中的碳13关键点是根据地形地理变量（等值线）建模的。

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