Global Mean Surface Temperature Response to Large‐Scale Patterns of Variability in Observations and CMIP5

Kajtar Jules B.; Collins Matthew; Frankcombe Leela M.; England Matthew H.; Osborn Timothy J.; Juniper Marcus

摘要

Abstract >Global mean surface temperature (GMST) fluctuates over decadal to multidecadal time scales. Patterns of internal variability are partly responsible, but the relationships can be conflated by anthropogenically forced signals. Here we adopt a physically based method of separating internal variability from forced responses to examine how trends in large‐scale patterns, specifically the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), influence GMST. After removing the forced responses, observed variability of GMST is close to the central estimates of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 simulations, but models tend to underestimate IPO variability at time scales 10?years, and AMV at time scales 20?years. Correlations between GMST trends and these patterns are also underrepresented, most strongly at 10‐ and 35‐year time scales, for IPO and AMV, respectively. Strikingly, models that simulate stronger variability of IPO and AMV also exhibit stronger relationships between these patterns and GMST, predominately at the 10‐ and 35‐year time scales, respectively. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><Abstract Type =“Main”XML：Lang =“en”> <标题类型=“main”>抽象</ title> >全局平均表面温度（GMST）在Decadal到多个时间尺度波动。内部变异的模式是部分原因，但是关系可以通过人体强制信号混合。在这里，我们采用了物理上基于的内部可变性的方法，从强制响应中审查了大规模模式的趋势，特别是跨跨越的太平洋振荡（IPO）和大西洋多视长变异（AMV），影响GMST。在去除强制响应之后，观察到的GMST的可变性接近耦合模型互通项目第5项模拟的中央估计，但模型倾向于在时间尺度和 10？年和amv时低估IPO变异性。20？年。 GMST趋势与这些模式之间的相关性也经历了高度的，最强烈地在10级和35年的时间尺度，IPO和AMV。令人醒目的是，模拟IPO和AMV的更强变化的模型也在这些模式和GMST之间具有更强的关系，主要是在10-和35年的时间尺度上。</ p> </摘要> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-23539/'>《Geophysical Research Letters》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2019年第4期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共10页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Kajtar Jules B.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Kajtar Jules B.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Collins Matthew&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Collins Matthew;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Frankcombe Leela M.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Frankcombe Leela M.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=England Matthew H.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">England Matthew H.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Osborn Timothy J.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Osborn Timothy J.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Juniper Marcus&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Juniper Marcus;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>College of Engineering Mathematics and Physical SciencesUniversity of ExeterExeter UK;</p> <p>College of Engineering Mathematics and Physical SciencesUniversity of ExeterExeter UK;</p> <p>Australian Research Council's Centre of Excellence for Climate ExtremesAustralia;</p> <p>Australian Research Council's Centre of Excellence for Climate ExtremesAustralia;</p> <p>Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental SciencesUniversity of East AngliaNorwich UK;</p> <p>College of Engineering Mathematics and Physical SciencesUniversity of ExeterExeter UK;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/163.html" title="地球物理学">地球物理学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=climate variability&option=203" rel="nofollow">climate variability;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=global mean surface temperature&option=203" rel="nofollow">global mean surface temperature;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation&option=203" rel="nofollow">Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Atlantic Multidecadal Variability&option=203" rel="nofollow">Atlantic Multidecadal Variability;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=CMIP5&option=203" rel="nofollow">CMIP5;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：气候变异性;全球平均表面温度;跨跨越太平洋振荡;大西洋多型变异性;CMIP5; 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kiln, has non-stick coating on part of surface and scale detaching device activated in response to temperature of surface</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 外国专利：  FR2813542A1 </span> <span> . 2002-03-08</span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：用于对耐火材料表面除垢的设备水泥窑，部分表面具有不粘涂层，并根据表面温度激活除垢装置 </span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>4. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06130449138446.html">INNER STATIONARY PLANET MEANS, GLOBAL WARMING PREVENTING MEANS, EARTH METEOROLOGY CONTROL MEANS, ULTRAVIOLET RAY SHIELDING MEANS, SOLAR OBSERVATION PLANET MEANS, SOLAR POWER GENERATION PLANET MEANS, VENUS COOLING MEANS, OUTER STATIONARY PLANET MEANS, AND 'SOLAR ECLIPSE WHERE SUN HIDES EARTH OR GLOBAL ATMOSPHERE' OBSERVATION/SIGHTSEENG PLANET MEANS, MARS WARMING MEANS, JUPITER WARMING MEANS, TELESCOPIC PLANET MEANS, MAGNETIC FIELD OBSERVATION PLANET MEANS, EARTH MAGNETIC FIELD OBSERVATION PLANET MEANS, INNER GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE MEANS OF SAME REVOLUTION ANGULAR VELOCITY TYPE, OUTER GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE MEANS OF SAME REVOLUTION ANGULAR VELOCITY TYPE, 'EARTH ECLIPSE WHERE MOON HIDES EARTH' OBSERVATION/SIGHTSEENG SATELLITE MEANS, SPACE COMMUNICATION MEANS BETWEEN HIDDEN SIDE OF MOON AND EARTH, INNER STATIONARY CELESTIAL BODY MEANS OF SAME REVOLUTION ANGULAR VELOCITY TYPE, OUTER STATIONARY CELESTIAL BODY MEANS OF SAME REVOLUTION ANGULAR VELOCITY TYPE, LIGHT TRANSMISSIVE QUANTITY CONTR</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 外国专利：  JP2001001997A </span> <span> . 2001-01-09</span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：内陆行星系手段，全球变暖预防手段，地球气象控制手段，紫外射线屏蔽手段，太阳能观测行星手段，太阳能发电行星手段，金星冷却手段，外地静止行星手段以及日月偏远大气观测/视场手段，火星暖化手段，准星变暖手段，望远镜观测手段，磁场观测观测手段，地球磁场观测观测手段，内地静止卫星同等旋转度的卫星平均值旋转角速度类型，“月蚀掩盖地球的月蚀”观测/高度卫星卫星，月球和地球之间的空间通信方式，同心转角角质体体位，同心转角V角均值角速度类型，光透射量转换 </span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>5. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06130434109205.html">Motor vehicle` s painted surface deformation determination method, involves arranging scale to be formed in given distance to surface to be examined, where scale in preset full scale is projected on surface as line pattern and grid pattern</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 外国专利：  DE102006018766A1 </span> <span> . 2007-10-31</span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：机动车辆的涂漆表面变形确定方法，涉及在要检查的表面给定距离内布置要形成的标尺，其中将预设全标尺的标尺以线形和网格状投影到表面上 </span> </p> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="theme cardcommon" style="overflow: auto;display:none"> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent55">相关主题</h3> <ul id="subject"> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="right rightcon"> <div class="details_img cardcommon clearfix" style="margin-bottom: 10px;display:none;" > 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