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首页> 外文期刊>Geophysical Research Letters >Diagnosing Transient Response to CO2 Forcing in Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model Experiments Using a Climate Model Emulator
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Diagnosing Transient Response to CO2 Forcing in Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model Experiments Using a Climate Model Emulator

机译：使用气候模型仿真器诊断对耦合大气模型实验的CO2强制迫使

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A climate model emulator that mimics an ensemble of state-of-the-art coupled climate models has been used for probabilistic climate projections. To emulate and compare the latest and previous multimodel ensembles, this study establishes a new method to diagnose a set of parameters of effective radiative forcing, feedback, and impulse response functions by fitting a minimal emulator to time series of individual models in response to step- and ramp-shaped CO2 forcing up to a quadrupling concentration level. The diagnosed CO2 forcing is scaled down to a doubling level, leading to an unbiased estimate of equilibrium climate sensitivity. The average climate sensitivity of the latest ensemble is 18% and 13% greater than that of the previous ensemble for equilibrium and transient states. Although these increases are subject to data availability, the latter smaller rate is significant and is consistent with the relationship between feedback strength and response timescales.
机译：一种气候模型仿真器，用于模仿最先进的耦合气候模型的集合，已被用于概率气候预测。 为了响应于阶梯，本研究建立了一种诊断有效辐射强制，反馈和脉冲响应功能的一组参数的新方法，以响应于阶梯 - 响应于各个模型的时间序列，通过拟合最小的仿真器来诊断一组有效的辐射强制，反馈和脉冲响应功能。 并且斜坡形CO2强制达到四倍浓度水平。 诊断为CO2强制被缩小到倍增水平，导致对平衡气候敏感性的无偏见估计。 最新集合的平均气候敏感度为18％和13％，比上一个均衡和瞬态状态的集合大。 虽然这些增加受数据可用性的影响，但后一种较小的速率是显着的，并且与反馈强度与反应时间尺度之间的关系一致。

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