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首页> 外文期刊>Current Science: A Fortnightly Journal of Research >A promising alternative to prediction of seasonal mean all India rainfall
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A promising alternative to prediction of seasonal mean all India rainfall

机译：有可能替代印度所有季节平均降雨量的预测

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摘要

Prediction of seasonal mean All India Rainfall (AIR) is useful during extreme monsoon years (droughts and floods) when the rainfall anomaly is homogeneous over the country. It is, however, useless for any regional hydro-meteorological applications during 'normal' monsoon years (70 per cent of available record), when the rainfall anomaly is quite inhomogeneous within the country. Further, there exists an intrinsic limit to predict the seasonal mean monsoon. The theoretically achievable skill (with perfect model and near perfect data) for seasonal prediction of rainfall being barely useful, there is a need to explore an alternative strategy for monsoon prediction even if it is with a shorter lead time. Based on some of our previous work, we propose here that predicting the phases of the monsoon sub-seasonal oscillation (active and break spells) 3-4 weeks in advance is such an alternative strategy. We argue that such predictions would be more useful for regional hydro-meteorological applications. Potential for such extended range prediction is demonstrated. Using an empirical model, it is further demonstrated that this potential can be achieved and useful prediction of monsoon breaks three weeks in advance could be made. Future direction in improving such extended range prediction of sub-seasonal spells is discussed.
机译：季节性平均值的预测在该国家的降雨异常均一的极端季风年份（干旱和洪水）期间，全印度降雨（AIR）很有用。但是，在“正常”季风年份（可用记录的70％）期间，当该国的降雨异常非常不均匀时，它对任何区域水文气象应用都没有用。此外，预测季节平均季风存在固有的局限性。理论上可达到的技能（具有完美的模型和接近完美的数据）对于降雨的季节性预测几乎没有用，即使有较短的提前期，也需要探索另一种季风预测策略。根据我们之前的一些工作，我们在这里建议，提前3-4周预测季风次季节振荡的阶段（主动和中断法术）是这样一种替代策略。我们认为，这样的预测对于区域水文气象应用将更为有用。证明了这种扩展范围预测的潜力。使用经验模型，进一步证明了这种潜力可以实现，并且可以提前三周做出有用的季风破裂预报。讨论了改进此类亚季节法术的扩展范围预测的未来方向。

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