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Integrated Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis: A Draft AACE Recommended Practice

机译：综合成本和进度风险分析：AACE建议措施草案

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摘要

This draft recommended practice (RP) of AACE International defines the integrated analysis of schedule and cost risk to estimate the appropriate level of cost contingency reserve on projects. The main contribution of this RP is to include the impact of schedule risk on cost risk and hence on the need for cost contingency reserves. Additional benefits include the prioritizing of the risks to cost, some of which are risks to schedule. Another benefit is the prioritization of project risks so that risk mitigation may be conducted in a cost-effective way. The methods presented in the RP are based on integrating the cost estimate with the project schedule by resource-loading and costing the schedule's activities. The simulation of the cost-loaded schedule, using Monte Carlo techniques, then simulates both time and cost, permitting the impacts of schedule risk on cost risk to be calculated.
机译：AACE International的本建议操作规程（RP）定义了进度和成本风险的综合分析，以估算项目的成本应急准备金的适当水平。该计划的主要贡献是包括进度风险对成本风险的影响，并因此对成本应急准备金的需求。其他好处包括优先考虑成本风险，其中一些是计划风险。另一个好处是可以对项目风险进行优先级排序，从而可以以经济有效的方式降低风险。 RP中提出的方法基于通过资源加载和进度活动成本来将成本估算与项目进度整合在一起。使用蒙特卡洛技术对成本加载进度计划进行仿真，然后对时间和成本进行仿真，从而可以计算进度风险对成本风险的影响。

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