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首页> 外文期刊>Bulletin of earthquake engineering >Rapid seismic loss assessment using new probabilistic demand and consequence models
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Rapid seismic loss assessment using new probabilistic demand and consequence models

机译：利用新的概率需求和后果模型快速地震损失评估

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摘要

This paper proposes a set of new Bayesian regression models to perform first order reliability method (FORM) calculations of repair cost exceedance probability. The models are classified in two categories, story-specific demand model and consequence models. The demand model developed in the form of linear equation predicts maximum acceleration and drift at each story of low-to mid-rise regular steel moment resisting frames. The consequence models are formulated as polynomial functions based on output provided by the upstream demand model and estimate repair cost of 30 building fragility groups. Next, the application of the proposed models in a first order reliability analysis to compute seismic loss probabilities for some example buildings is evaluated. The results are compared with those of a FEMA P-58 full simulation-based analysis and the computation reduction provided by utilization of the proposed regression models in the context of the FORM is assessed. Based on this finding, the practically appealing potential of the developed models is shown.
机译：本文提出了一套新的贝叶斯回归模型来执行维修成本超出概率的第一阶可靠性方法（表格）计算。该模型分为两类，故事特定的需求模型和后果模型。以线性方程形式开发的需求模型预测了最大的加速度和漂移在低到中层常规钢时刻抵抗框架的每个故事。后果模型被制定为基于由上游需求模型提供的输出和30个建筑脆弱组的维修成本提供的多项式函数。接下来，评估所提出的模型在第一阶可靠性分析中进行计算以计算一些示例建筑物的地震损耗概率。结果将结果与FEMA P-58全仿真的分析进行比较，并且评估了在表单上下文中利用所提出的回归模型提供的计算减少。基于这一发现，显示了开发模型的实际上吸引力潜力。

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