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Effects of various modeling uncertainty parameters on the seismic response and seismic fragility estimates of the aging highway bridges

机译：各种建模不确定性参数对衰老公路桥梁地震反应及地震脆弱估计的影响

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摘要

This paper proposes an alternative time-dependent seismic fragility assessment framework for aging highway bridges considering the non-uniform chloride-induced corrosion and various modeling uncertainty parameters. Firstly, sensitivity analysis with the tornado diagram technique is performed to determine the sensitivity of some typical bridge engineering demand parameters (EDPs) to 22 modeling related uncertain parameters, and then 10 critical parameters are identified. Subsequently, based on a series of nonlinear time history analyses (NLTHAs) on the sample models generated by using the Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) method, comparative studies for the time-invariant and time-evolving seismic response, as well as the time-dependent seismic fragility estimates incorporating different levels of uncertainty are performed, respectively. It is concluded that (1) the uncertainty of the modeling related uncertain parameters may lead to the difference in the trajectory of seismic hysteretic response for a given bridge member, whereas the variation of the peak value of seismic response may result from the couple contributions of the uncertainty of ground motions and modeling related parameters; (2) the inclusion of only ground motion uncertainty is inadequate and inappropriate, and the proper way is to incorporate the uncertainty of the identified critical modeling parameters and ground motions into the time-evolving seismic response and the time-dependent seismic fragility assessment of the deteriorating highway bridges.
机译：本文提出了考虑非均匀氯化物诱导的腐蚀和各种建模不确定性参数的替代时间依赖性地震脆弱性评估框架。首先，执行与龙卷风图技术的敏感性分析，以确定一些典型的桥梁工程需求参数（EDP）到22到22模型相关不确定参数的灵敏度，然后识别10个关键参数。随后，基于通过使用拉丁超立体采样（LHS）方法产生的样本模型的一系列非线性时间历史分析（NLTHA），对比较研究进行时间不变，时间不断发展的地震反应，以及时间 - 依赖性地震脆弱估计分别进行不同水平的不确定性。得出结论：（1）建模相关不确定参数的不确定性可能导致给定桥梁构件的地震滞后响应轨迹的差异，而抗震响应的峰值的变化可能是由对夫妻贡献产生的地面运动的不确定性和建模相关参数; （2）只有基础行动不确定性的纳入不充分，不合适，并且正确的方法是将所确定的关键建模参数和地面运动的不确定性纳入时间不断发展的地震反应和时间依赖地震脆弱性评估道路桥梁变质。

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