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The Effects of Previous Misestimation of Task Duration on Estimating Future Task Duration

机译：先前对任务持续时间的误判对估计未来任务持续时间的影响

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摘要

It is a common time management problem that people underestimate the duration of tasks, which has been termed the "planning fallacy." To overcome this, it has been suggested that people should be informed about how long they previously worked on the same task. This study, however, tests whether previous misestimation also affects the duration estimation of a novel task, even if the feedback is only self-generated. To test this, two groups of participants performed two unrelated, laboratory-based tasks in succession. Learning was manipulated by permitting only the experimental group to retrospectively estimate the duration of the first task before predicting the duration of the second task. Results showed that the experimental group underestimated the duration of the second task less than the control group, which indicates a general kind of learning from previous misestimation. The findings imply that people could be trained to carefully observe how much they misestimate task duration in order to stimulate learning. The findings are discussed in relation to the anchoring account of task duration misestimation and the memory-bias account of the planning fallacy.
机译：人们低估了任务的持续时间是一个常见的时间管理问题，被称为“计划谬误”。为了克服这个问题，建议人们应该被告知他们以前在同一任务上工作了多长时间。然而，这项研究测试了先前的错误估计是否也会影响一项新任务的持续时间估计，即使反馈仅是自产生的也是如此。为了对此进行测试，两组参与者相继执行了两项与实验室无关的任务。通过仅允许实验组在预测第二任务的持续时间之前回顾性地估计第一任务的持续时间来操纵学习。结果表明，实验组低估了第二项任务的持续时间，少于对照组，这表明从先前的错误估计中可以学习到一种普遍的学习方法。该发现暗示人们可以接受培训，以仔细观察他们错误地估计了任务持续时间以刺激学习。讨论了有关任务持续时间错误估计的锚定帐户和计划谬误的记忆偏见帐户的发现。

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