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首页> 外文期刊>Acta Horticulturae >Impact of climate change on crop water demand in the Okanagan valley, B.C., Canada.
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Impact of climate change on crop water demand in the Okanagan valley, B.C., Canada.

机译：气候变化对加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省欧肯娜根山谷的农作物需水量的影响。

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Horticulture in the semi-arid, Okanagan valley is dependent on irrigation. Our objectives were to determine crop water requirements under climate change scenarios and to compare potential demand with current water use and supply. Methods were developed to integrate crop water demand data with spatial climate and land use data. Equations for seasonal crop coefficients were developed. Equations to predict daily solar radiation and daily maximum and minimum temperatures from monthly data were also derived as a basis for estimating PET. Future climate data (Canadian Global Coupled Model -CGMC1) were compared with 1961-1990 normals. Climate data were spatially downscaled from a 3.75 degrees latitude x 3.75 degrees longitude grid output through the PRISM (Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model) to a 4 km x 4 km grid. Land use data were acquired from a variety of sources and incorporated into a GIS and overlain with the PRISM grid cells to create unique polygons. Calculations of crop water demand were performed for each polygon. Crop water demand was totaled on a region and Irrigation District basis. Overall average predicted water use data for present day conditions were compared with values of expected water use to test the crop water demand model. Predicted values were slightly lower than expected values (745 mm/year vs 820-1000 mm/year). This was attributed to the coarseness of the PRISM grid, which resulted in large elevation changes within cells and underestimation of temperatures. Total annual water consumption for the period 1996-1999 reported by the major Irrigation Districts was reasonably similar to that predicted by the model (46.9 m3 x 106 vs 51.8 m3 x 106). Thus the model was considered adequate for prediction of effects of climate change. For the region as a whole, estimated crop water demand increased by 37%, from 745 to 1021 mm/year (80 to 110 m3 x 106) between the present day and the 2070-2099 scenario. Some Irrigation Districts may not be able to meet the increased demand.
机译：欧肯娜根山谷半干旱地区的园艺依赖灌溉。我们的目标是确定气候变化情景下的作物需水量，并将潜在需求与当前的用水和供应进行比较。开发了将农作物需水量数据与空间气候和土地利用数据整合在一起的方法。开发了季节性作物系数方程。还推导出了根据月度数据预测每日太阳辐射以及每日最高和最低温度的方程式，作为估算PET的基础。将未来的气候数据（加拿大全球耦合模型-CGMC1）与1961-1990年的正常值进行了比较。通过PRISM（独立坡度模型上的参数高程回归）将气候数据从3.75度x 3.75度经度网格输出到4 km x 4 km网格。土地使用数据可从多种来源获取，并整合到GIS中并覆盖PRISM网格单元以创建独特的多边形。对每个多边形进行了作物需水量的计算。作物需水量是按区域和灌溉区计算的。将当前状况的总体平均预测用水量数据与预期用水量值进行比较，以测试农作物需水量模型。预测值略低于预期值（745毫米/年与820-1000毫米/年）。这归因于PRISM网格的粗糙性，导致单元内的高程变化很大，而温度却被低估了。主要灌溉区报告的1996-1999年期间的年度总耗水量与模型预测的相近（46.9立方米x 106与51.8立方米x 106）。因此，该模型被认为足以预测气候变化的影响。从今天到2070年至2099年之间，整个地区的估计作物需水量增长了37％，从745到1021毫米/年（80到110立方米x 106）。一些灌溉区可能无法满足日益增长的需求。

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