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首页> 外文期刊>Climatic Change >The glass half-empty: climate change drives lower freshwater input in the coastal system of the Chilean Northern Patagonia
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The glass half-empty: climate change drives lower freshwater input in the coastal system of the Chilean Northern Patagonia

机译：玻璃半空：气候变化推动智利北部巴塔哥尼亚沿海系统的淡水投入

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摘要

Oceanographic conditions in coastal Chilean northern Patagonia (41-46 degrees S) are strongly influenced by freshwater inputs. Precipitation and streamflow records have shown a marked decrease in this area during the last decades. Given this hydro-climatic scenario, we evaluated the hydrological sensitivity driven by climate change in the Puelo River (average annual streamflow = 640 m(3) s(-1)), one of the most important sources of freshwater in the fjords and inland seas of Chile's Northern Patagonia. A lumped hydrological model was developed to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios in the near future (2030-2060) using the delta change method based on 25 General Circulation Models. The model was fed by local hydro-meteorological data and remote sensors, simulating well the magnitude and seasonality of Puelo River streamflow. Considering the Refined Index of Agreement (RIA), the model achieved a high performance in the calibration (RIA = 0.79) and validation stages (RIA = 0.78). Under the RCP 8.5 scenario (multi-model mean), the projections suggest that the annual input of freshwater from the Puelo River to the Reloncavi Fjord would decrease by - 10% (1.6 km(3) less freshwater); these decreases would mainly take place in summer ( - 20%) and autumn ( - 15%). The recurrence of extreme hydroclimatic events is also projected to increase in the future, with the probability of occurrence of droughts, such as the recent 2016 event with the lowest freshwater input in the last 70 years, doubling with respect to the historical records.
机译：沿海智利北部巴塔哥尼亚（41-46度）的海洋情况受到淡水投入的强烈影响。降水和流流量记录在过去几十年中显示了这一领域的显着减少。鉴于这种水力气候情景，我们评估了濮科河（Puelo River）气候变化驱动的水文敏感性（平均年度流速率= 640米（3）秒）是峡湾和内陆最重要的淡水来源之一智利北巴塔哥尼亚海洋。制定了一分集水文模型，以评估在不久的将来（2030-2060）的代表浓度途径（RCP）2.6,4.5和8.5场景下的气候变化在不久的情况下的情况下的潜在影响（2030-2060）使用基于25个普通循环模型的Δ变化方法。该模型由本地水力气象数据和远程传感器喂养，模拟普罗河流出的幅度和季节性。考虑到精致的协议指数（RIA），该模型在校准（RIA = 0.79）和验证阶段（RIA = 0.78）中实现了高性能。在RCP 8.5场景（多模型意思）下，预测表明，从普洛河到RECONCAVI峡湾的淡水年度投入将减少 - 10％（1.6公里（3）淡水较少）;这些减少主要发生在夏季（ - 20％）和秋季（ - 15％）。极端循环事件的复发也会预计未来增加，随着干旱发生的可能性，如最近70岁的淡水投入近70年来，历史记录增加了一倍。

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  • 来源
    《Climatic Change》 |2019年第3期|共19页
  • 作者

    Aguayo Rodrigo; Leon-Munoz Jorge; Vargas-Baecheler Jose; Montecinos Aldo; Garreaud Rene; Urbina Mauricio; Soto Doris; Luis Iriarte Jose;

  • 作者单位

    Univ Concepcion Fac Ingn Dept Ingn Civil Concepcion Chile;

    Univ Catolica Santisima Concepcion Fac Ciencias Dept Quim Ambiental Concepcion Chile;

    Univ Concepcion Fac Ingn Dept Ingn Civil Concepcion Chile;

    Univ Concepcion Fac Ciencias Fis &

    Matemat Dept Geofis Concepcion Chile;

    Univ Chile Fac Ciencias Fis &

    Matemat Dept Geofis Santiago Chile;

    Univ Concepcion Fac Ciencias Nat &

    Oceanog Dept Zool Concepcion Chile;

    Ctr Interdisciplinario Invest Acuicola INCAR Concepcion Chile;

    Univ Austral Chile Inst Acuicultura Ctr Invest Dinam Ecosistemas Marinos Altas Latitu Puerto Montt Chile;

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  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 大气科学（气象学）;
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