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How to evaluate a monitoring system for adaptive policies: criteria for signposts selection and their model-based evaluation

机译：如何评估自适应策略监控系统：路标选择的标准及其模型的评估

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摘要

Adaptive policies have emerged as a valuable strategy for dealing with uncertainties by recognising the capacity of systems to adapt over time to new circumstances and surprises. The efficacy of adaptive policies hinges on detecting on-going change and ensuring that actions are indeed taken if and when necessary. This is operationalised by including a monitoring system composed of signposts and triggers in the design of the plan. A well-designed monitoring system is indispensable for the effective implementation of adaptive policies. Despite the importance of monitoring for adaptive policies, the present literature has not considered criteria enabling the a-priori evaluation of the efficacy of signposts. In this paper, we introduce criteria for the evaluation of individual signposts and the monitoring system as a whole. These criteria are relevance, observability, completeness, and parsimony. These criteria are intended to enhance the capacity to detect the need for adaptation in the presence of noisy and ambiguous observations of the real system. The criteria are identified from an analysis of the information chain, from system observations to policy success, focusing on how data becomes information. We illustrate how models, in particular, the combined use of stochastic and exploratory modelling can be used to assess individual signposts, and the whole monitoring system according to these criteria. This analysis provides significant insight into critical factors that may hinder learning from data. The proposed criteria are demonstrated using a hypothetical case, in which a monitoring system for a flood protection policy in the Niger River is designed and tested.
机译：自适应政策已成为通过认识到制度能力随着时间的推移和惊喜来处理不确定性的有价值的策略。自适应政策铰链对检测续流的功效，确保在必要时确保采取行动。这通过包括由计划设计中的路标和触发器组成的监测系统来运营。精心设计的监控系统对于有效实施自适应政策是必不可少的。尽管监测自适应政策的重要性，但目前的文献尚未考虑标准，从而提高了路标疗效的a-priori评价。在本文中，我们介绍了整体评估个人路标和监测系统的标准。这些标准是相关性，可观察性，完整性和分析性。这些标准旨在增强在存在对真实系统的嘈杂和模糊的观察结果中检测适应的需要的能力。从信息链的分析中识别标准，从系统观察到政策成功，专注于数据如何成为信息。我们说明了如何使用随机和探索性建模的模型的组合使用来评估各个路标，以及根据这些标准的整个监控系统。该分析提供了对可能妨碍数据学习的关键因素的重要洞察。使用假设案例证明了拟议标准，其中设计并测试了尼日尔河洪水保护政策的监测系统。

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