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首页> 外文期刊>Climatic Change >Conspicuous temperature extremes over Southeast Asia: seasonal variations under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C global warming
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Conspicuous temperature extremes over Southeast Asia: seasonal variations under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C global warming

机译：在东南亚的显着温度极端：1.5摄氏度下的季节变化和2摄氏度的全球变暖

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摘要

Guided by the Paris Agreement, the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 degrees C reported potential risks of climate change at different global warming levels (GWLs). To provide fundamental information on future temperature extremes over Southeast Asia (SEA), projected changes in temperature extreme indices are evaluated for different seasons at 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C GWLs against the historical reference period of 1976-2005 based on the ensemble of CORDEX simulations. Results show that the temperature indices increase significantly across the Indochina Peninsula and Maritime Continent at both GWLs except for decreasing daily temperature range (DTR) in the dry season, with more pronounced magnitudes at 2 degrees C GWL. Moreover, the regionally averaged ensemble medians of the indices show various changes over different subregions. At 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C GWLs, most pronounced increases of threshold indices. i.e. summer days (SU) and tropical nights (TR), are projected in Sumatra and Sulawesi for both wet and dry seasons. The warm spell duration (WSDI) increases generally, with strongest magnitudes for Sumatra and Sulawesi (Philippines and Sulawesi) in the wet (dry) season. On the other hand, significant increases of warm days and nights can also be observed at 2 degrees C GWL compared to 1.5 degrees C, particularly in the dry season, suggesting the high sensitivity of temperature extremes over the SEA. The projected potentially conspicuous temperature extremes under global warming of 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C primarily concentrate on the densely populated coastal regions of the main islands, showing the necessity of restricting global warming to 1.5 degrees C aiming at the eradication and reduction of regional climate stress for the human system in the developing countries over the SEA.
机译：由巴黎协议为指导，IPCC关于1.5摄氏度全球变暖的特别报告报告了不同全球变暖水平的气候变化（GWL）的潜在风险。为了提供关于东南亚（海洋）的未来温度极端的基本信息，在基于Cordex的集合的历史参考时期，在1.5摄氏度和2摄氏度的不同季节评估了温度极端指数的预计变化。模拟。结果表明，除了在干燥季节中的日常温度范围（DTR）降低外，温度指数在吲哚普利纳半岛和海洋大陆上显着增加，在2摄氏度下具有更明显的大小。此外，索引的区域平均集合中位数显示出不同亚区的各种变化。在1.5摄氏度和2°C的GWL中，最明显的阈值指数增加。即，夏天（SU）和热带夜晚（TR），在苏门答腊和苏拉威西术中预测，潮湿和干燥的季节。温暖的法术持续时间（WSDI）通常增加，苏门答腊和苏拉威西地（菲律宾和苏拉环西）中最强的大幅度在潮湿（干）季节。另一方面，与1.5℃，特别是在干燥季节，也可以在2摄氏度下观察到较大的温暖天和夜晚的增加的增加。在全球变暖的预测可能的极端温度为1.5℃和2℃，主要集中在主要岛屿的密集沿海地区，表明必须限制全球变暖到1.5摄氏度的必要性，旨在根除和减少区域气候在海上发展中国家的人类系统的压力。

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