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首页> 外文期刊>Conservation Biology >Accounting for adaptive capacity and uncertainty in assessments of species' climate-change vulnerability
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Accounting for adaptive capacity and uncertainty in assessments of species' climate-change vulnerability

机译：对物种气候变化脆弱性评估的适应能力和不确定性核算

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Climate-change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are valuable tools for assessing species' vulnerability to climatic changes, yet failure to include measures of adaptive capacity and to account for sources of uncertainty may limit their effectiveness. We took a more comprehensive approach that incorporates exposure, sensitivity, and capacity to adapt to climate change. We applied our approach to anadromous steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and nonanadromous bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus), threatened salmonids within the Columbia River Basin (U.S.A.). We quantified exposure on the basis of scenarios of future stream temperature and flow, and we represented sensitivity and capacity to adapt to climate change with metrics of habitat quality, demographic condition, and genetic diversity. Both species were found to be highly vulnerable to climate change at low elevations and in their southernmost habitats. However, vulnerability rankings varied widely depending on the factors (climate, habitat, demographic, and genetic) included in the CCVA and often differed for the 2 species at locations where they were sympatric. Our findings illustrate that CCVA results are highly sensitive to data inputs and that spatial differences can complicate multispecies conservation. Based on our results, we suggest that CCVAs be considered within a broader conceptual and computational framework and be used to refine hypotheses, guide research, and compare plausible scenarios of species' vulnerability to climate change.
机译：气候变化漏洞评估（CCVA）是评估物种对气候变化脆弱性的有价值的工具，但未能包括适应能力的措施，并考虑不确定性来源可能会限制其有效性。我们采取了更全面的方法，融合了适应气候变化的暴露，敏感性和能力。我们将我们的方法应用于赤裸钢头鳟鱼（Oncorhynchus mykiss）和壬缕属牛鳟（Salvelinus Confluentus），在哥伦比亚河流域（U.S.A.）内受到威胁的鲑鱼。我们在未来流温度和流量的情况下量化曝光，我们代表了适应栖息地质量，人口统计条件和遗传多样性度量的气候变化的敏感性和能力。发现这两个物种都被认为是高度高度和最南端的气候变化的气候变化。然而，脆弱性排名根据CCVA中包含的因素（气候，栖息地，人口和遗传）而变化而变化，并且通常在它们是合并症的地方的2种不同的情况下不同。我们的研究结果表明，CCVA结果对数据输入非常敏感，并且空间差异可以使多层保护复杂化。根据我们的结果，我们建议在更广泛的概念和计算框架内考虑CCVA，并用于改进假设，指导研究，并比较物种脆弱性对气候变化的卓越情景。

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