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A critical appraisal of population viability analysis

机译：人口活力分析的批判性评估

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Population viability analysis (PVA) is useful in management of imperiled species. Applications range from research design, threat assessment, and development of management frameworks. Given the importance of PVAs, it is essential that they be rigorous and adhere to widely accepted guidelines; however, the quality of published PVAs is rarely assessed. We evaluated the quality of 160 PVAs of 144 species of birds and mammals published in peer-reviewed journals from 1990 to 2017. We hypothesized that PVA quality would be lower with generic programs than with custom-built programs; be higher for those developed for imperiled species; change over time; and be higher for those published in journals with high impact factors (IFs). Each included study was evaluated based on answers to an evaluation framework containing 32 questions reflecting whether and to what extent the PVA study adhered to published PVA guidelines or contained important PVA components. All measures of PVA quality were generally lower for studies based on generic programs. Conservation status of the species did not affect any measure of PVA quality, but PVAs published in high IF journals were of higher quality. Quality generally declined over time, suggesting the quantitative literacy of PVA practitioners has not increased over time or that PVAs developed by unskilled users are being published in peer-reviewed journals. Only 18.1% of studies were of high quality (score >75%), which is troubling because poor-quality PVAs could misinform conservation decisions. We call for increased scrutiny of PVAs by journal editors and reviewers. Our evaluation framework can be used for this purpose. Because poor-quality PVAs continue to be published, we recommend caution while using PVA results in conservation decision making without thoroughly assessing the PVA quality.
机译：人口活力分析（PVA）可用于管理危机。应用范围从研究设计，威胁评估和管理框架的发展。鉴于PVA的重要性，他们必须严格，并坚持广泛接受的指导方针;但是，很少评估已发表的PVA的质量。我们评估了1990年至2017年在同行评审期刊上发表的144种鸟类和哺乳动物的160个PVA的质量。我们假设PVA质量与通用计划较低，而不是与定制方案进行普通计划;对于那些为危险物种开发的人而言更高;随着时间的推移而变化;对于那些在具有高影响因素（IFS）的期刊上发布的人来说更高。每个包括的研究都是根据包含32个问题的评估框架的答案进行评估，反映了PVA研究是否遵守公开的PVA指南或包含重要的PVA组件。基于通用计划的研究通常，PVA质量的所有措施一般都较低。物种的保护状况不影响PVA质量的任何尺度，但如果期刊质量更高，PVA高。质量一般随着时间的推移而下降，表明PVA从业者的定量识字率随着时间的推移没有增加，或者由非熟练用户开发的PVA正在同行评审期刊上发表。只有18.1％的研究具有高质量（得分> 75％），这是令人不安的，因为质量差的PVA可能会误导守恒决策。我们要求通过期刊编辑和审稿人提高PVA的审查。我们的评估框架可用于此目的。由于质量差的PVA继续发布，我们建议在使用PVA导致保护决策时注意，而无需彻底评估PVA质量。

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