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The current farm downturn vs the 1920s and 1980s farm crisesAn economic and regulatory comparison

机译：目前的农场衰退与20世纪20年代和20世纪80年代农场克莱斯坦经济和监管比较

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Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to examine the current farm economic downturn and credit restructuring by comparing it with the 1920s and 1980s farm crises from both economic and regulatory perspectives.Design/methodology/approach - This paper closely compares critical economic and regulatory aspects of the current farm downturn with two previous farm crises in the 1920s and 1980s, and equally importantly, the golden eras that occurred before them. Thisstudy compares key aggregate statistics in land value, agricultural credit, lending regulations, and also evaluates the situations and impacts on individual farmer households by using three representative case studies.Findings - The authors argue that there are at least three economic and regulatory reasons why the current farm downturn is unlikely to slide into a sudden collapse of the agricultural markets: strong, real income; growth in the 2000s, historically low interest rates; and more prudent agricultural lending practices. The current farm downturn is more likely a liquidity and working capital problem, as opposed to a solvency and balance sheet problem for the overall agricultural sector. The authors argue that the trajectory of the current farm downturn will likely be a gradual, drawn-out one like that of the 1920s farm crisis, as opposed to a sudden collapse as in the 1980s farm crisis.Originality/value - The review provides empirical evidence for cautious optimism of the future trajectory of the current downturn, and argues that the current downturn is much more similar to the 1920s pattern than the 1980s crisis.
机译：目的 - 本文的目的是通过将其与20世纪20年代和20世纪80年代的农场危机与经济和监管观点的农场危机进行比较，研究当前的农业经济衰退和信贷重组.Design/Methodology/Approach - 本文与关键的经济和监管方面进行了密切化在20世纪20年代和20世纪80年代的前两家农场危机的当前农场衰退，同样重要的是，在他们面前发生的金色时代。鉴于土地价值，农业信贷，贷款法规的关键综合统计，以及使用三个代表案例研究评估了对个人农户的情况和影响。作者争辩说，至少有三种经济和监管原因目前的农场经济衰退不太可能滑入农业市场的突然崩溃：强大，实际收入; 2000年代的增长，历史低利率;和更谨慎的农业贷款实践。目前的农场经济衰退更可能是流动性和营运资本问题，而不是整个农业部门的偿付能力和资产负债表问题。作者认为，当前农场衰退的轨迹可能是20世纪20年代农场危机的逐步，而不是突然崩溃，而不是在20世纪80年代的农场危机中突然崩溃。民法/价值 - 审查提供了经验对当前衰退的未来轨迹持谨慎乐观的证据，并认为目前的衰退与20世纪20年代的模式比20世纪80年代的危机更相似。

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