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An analysis of geographic and product diversification in crop planning strategy

机译：作物规划战略地理和产品多元化分析

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摘要

An empirical study of the factors that influence the optimal degree of geographic and product diversification to use as a risk mitigant in agriculture planning is carried out using a simple crop planning optimisation model that maximises the expected profit. The factors considered include the distance between the available plots, the amount and variability of spoilage risk, the yield variability and the variance in the produce selling prices. We propose a new metric, based on the entropy concept, for quantifying the geographic diversification. The degree of geographic and product diversification of the optimal plan, as well as the profit level, the overall percentage of demand satisfied and the number of plots unused, are studied. The results show that the optimal combination of the two types of diversification (geographic and product) are dependent on the specific scenario considered, and the factor that has the largest influence on the degree of geographic and product diversification is the separation between the plots. A similar effect is in the variance of the selling prices. Also, as the geographic diversification of the optimal solution increases so does its product diversification and its profit level. The profit level decreases significantly as the separation between the plots and the average spoilage risk increases. Other effects that are worth mentioning are the reduction in the percentage of demand satisfied as the separation between the plots increases, and when the variance in the selling prices increases.
机译：使用简单的作物规划优化模型进行了影响利用农业规划中的风险助化的地理和产品多样化的因素的实证研究，最大化预期利润。所考虑的因素包括可用地块之间的距离，腐败风险的数量和可变性，产量变异性和销售价格的差异。我们提出了一种基于熵概念的新度量，用于量化地理多样化。研究了最佳计划的地理和产品多样化，以及利润水平，满足需求的总体百分比和未使用的地块数量。结果表明，这两种多样化（地理和产品）的最佳组合取决于所考虑的具体情景，并且对地理和产品多样化程度具有最大影响的因素是图之间的分离。类似的效果是销售价格的差异。此外，由于最佳解决方案的地理多样化增加了其产品多样化和其利润率。利润率显着降低，因为地块之间的分离和平均腐败风险增加。值得一提的其他效果是随着地块之间分离的需求百分比减少，并且当销售价格的方差增加时。

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