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Spatial variability of long-term trends of significant wave heights in the Black Sea

机译：黑海中显着波浪高度的长期趋势的空间变异

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This study aims to estimate the spatial variability of the long-term trends of Significant Wave Height (SWH) in the Black Sea. A spectral wave model was used to hindcast 38 years of SWH forced by ECMWF ERA Interim wind fields. Long-term trends were estimated from normalized SWH (NSWH) data, for each month separately, by using two non-parametric methodologies; Line of best fit and the Theil-Sen estimator, and then mapped to show their spatial variability. Maps were generated for both mean SWHs and 95th percentile SWHs, the latter is considered to reflect the trends of the severe sea states. The basin-averaged analysis was also carried out to investigate the general tendency of SWHs in the Black Sea. The significance of the trends was evaluated by using Mann-Kendall test. The annual mean SWH is found to be increasing (up to 1.6%/year) in the eastern part of the Black Sea while the western part has a negative trend (down to ?1.2%/year). Long-term analysis of the 95th percentile SWHs revealed steeper trend slopes and higher statistical significance compared to the mean SWH trends, showing that storm SWHs have a higher tendency to increase than the mean SWHs. Statistically significant correlations between climate indices; North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific North American (PNA), East Atlantic (EA), East Atlantic/West Russia (EA/WR), Scandinavia (SCAND), Ni?o3 and the Black Sea wave fields were identified.
机译：本研究旨在估计黑海中显着波浪高度（SWH）的长期趋势的空间变异性。通过ECMWF时代风田迫使频谱波模型用于迫使ECMWF ERA临时风电场的38岁。通过使用两种非参数化方法，每月从标准化的SWH（nSWH）数据估计长期趋势;最佳契合线和Theil-森估算器，然后映射以显示它们的空间变异性。后者被认为是均值的SWH和第95百分位数的地图，被认为反映了严重海州的趋势。还进行了盆地平均分析，以研究黑海中SWHS的一般趋势。使用Mann-Kendall测试评估趋势的重要性。在西部的黑海东部的年度平均值均均增加（高达1.6％/年），而西部有负趋势（下降到1.2％/年）。第95百分位SWH的长期分析显示出陡峭的趋势斜率和更高的统计显着性与平均的SWH趋势相比，显示风暴SWH的增加趋势比平均的SWH增加。气候指标之间的统计学相关性;北大西洋振荡（NAO），北极振荡（AO），南极振荡（AAO），大西洋多型振荡（AMO），太平洋北美（PCNA），东大西洋（EA），东大西洋/西俄罗斯（EA / WR），斯堪的纳维亚（Scand），Ni？O3和黑海波场被识别出来。

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