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Impacts of Amazonia biomass burning aerosols assessed from short-range weather forecasts

机译：亚马逊生物量燃烧气溶胶的影响来自短程天气预报评估

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The direct radiative impacts of biomass burning aerosols (BBA) on meteorology are investigated using short-range forecasts from the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) over South America during the South American Biomass Burning Analysis (SAMBBA). The impacts are evaluated using a set of three simulations: (i) no aerosols, (ii) with monthly mean aerosol climatologies and (iii) with prognostic aerosols modelled using the Coupled Large-scale Aerosol Simulator for Studies In Climate (CLASSIC) scheme. Comparison with observations show that the prognostic CLASSIC scheme provides the best representation of BBA. The impacts of BBA are quantified over central and southern Amazonia from the first and second day of 2-day forecasts during 14 September-3 October 2012. On average, during the first day of the forecast, including prognostic BBA reduces the clear-sky net radiation at the surface by 15 +/- 1 W m(-2) and reduces net top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation by 8 +/- 1 W m(-2), with a direct atmospheric warming of 7 +/- 1 W m(-2). BBA-induced reductions in all-sky radiation are smaller in magnitude: 9.0 +/- 1 W m(-2) at the surface and 4.0 +/- 1 W m(-2) at TOA. In this modelling study the BBA therefore exert an overall cooling influence on the Earth-atmosphere system, although some levels of the atmosphere are directly warmed by the absorption of solar radiation. Due to the reduction of net radiative flux at the surface, the mean 2 m air temperature is reduced by around 0.1 +/- 0.02 degrees C. The BBA also cools the boundary layer (BL) but warms air above by around 0.2 degrees C due to the absorption of shortwave radiation. The overall impact is to reduce the BL depth by around 19 +/- 8 m. These differences in heating lead to a more anticyclonic circulation at 700 hPa, with winds changing by around 0.6 m s(-1). Inclusion of climatological or prognostic BBA in the MetUM makes a small but significant improvement in forecasts of temperature and relative humidity, but improvements were small compare with model error and the relative increase in forecast skill from the prognostic aerosol simulation over the aerosol climatology was also small. Locally, on a 150 km scale, changes in precipitation reach around 4 mm day(-1) due to changes in the location of convection. Over Amazonia, including BBA in the simulation led to fewer rain events that were more intense. This change may be linked to the BBA changing the vertical profile of stability in the lower atmosphere. The localised changes in rainfall tend to average out to give a 5% (0.06 mm day(-1)) decrease in total precipitation over the Amazonian region (except on day 2 with prognostic BBA). The change in water budget from BBA is, however, dominated by decreased evapotranspiration from the reduced net surface fluxes (0.2 to 0.3 mm day(-1)), since this term is larger than the corresponding changes in precipitation and water vapour convergence.
机译：在南美洲生物量燃烧分析（SAMBBA）期间，使用南美洲在南美洲（Sambba）在南美洲的短程预报来研究生物量燃烧气溶胶（BBA）对气象学的直接辐射影响。使用一组三种模拟来评估影响：（i）没有气溶胶，（ii），每月平均气溶胶气候和（iii），使用耦合大型气溶胶模拟器模拟的预后气溶胶用于气候（经典）方案。与观察结果的比较表明，预后经典方案提供了BBA的最佳表示。在2012年9月14日至3日期间的第一个和第二天的2天预报中，BBA对中央和南部的亚马逊州的影响是在预测的第一天的平均的预测中，包括预测的第一次表面辐射15 +/- 1 W m（-2），并通过8 +/-1w m（-2）减少净全部大气（TOA）辐射，直接大气变暖为7 + / - 1 W m（-2）。 BBA诱导的全天辐射的减少幅度较小：表面上的9.0 +/- 1 W m（-2），在TAA处为4.0 +/- 1w m（-2）。在该造型研究中，BBA因此对地球大气系统产生了整体冷却影响，尽管通过吸收太阳辐射直接温暖的大气层。由于表面上的净辐射通量的减少，平均2M空气温度减小约0.1 +/- 0.02℃。BBA也冷却边界层（BL），但是由于超过约0.2度C的空气升温。吸收短波辐射。整体影响是将BL深度降低约19 +/- 8米。这些加热的这些差异导致700 HPA的更加反气旋循环，风随着约0.6μm（-1）的风。在硕士学位中包含气候学或预后BBA在温度和相对湿度的预测中含有少量但显着的改善，但随着模型误差的比较和预测技能的改善和来自气溶胶气候的预后技能的相对增加也很小。当地，在150公里的规模上，由于对流位置的变化，降水量达到4mm天（-1）左右。在亚马逊上，在模拟中包括BBA导致更加激烈的雨季事件。这种变化可以与BBA改变在下大气中改变稳定性的垂直轮廓。降雨中的局部变化趋于平均出去，得到5％（0.06毫米（-1））在亚马逊地区的总降水下降（除了第2天除了预后BBA）。然而，BBA的水预算的变化是通过降低净表面助熔剂（0.2至0.3mm（-1））的蒸发来支配，因为该术语大于沉淀和水蒸气收敛的相应变化。

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