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Forty years of improvements in European air quality: regional policy-industry interactions with global impacts

机译：欧洲空气质量的四十年改善：区域政策行业与全球影响的互动

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The EDGARv4.3.1 (Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research) global anthropogenic emissions inventory of gaseous (SO2, NOx, CO, non-methane volatile organic compounds and NH3) and particulate (PM10, PM2.5, black and organic carbon) air pollutants for the period 1970-2010 is used to develop retrospective air pollution emissions scenarios to quantify the roles and contributions of changes in energy consumption and efficiency, technology progress and end-of-pipe emission reduction measures and their resulting impact on health and crop yields at European and global scale. The reference EDGARv4.3.1 emissions include observed and reported changes in activity data, fuel consumption and air pollution abatement technologies over the past 4aEuro-decades, combined with Tier 1 and region-specific Tier 2 emission factors. Two further retrospective scenarios assess the interplay of policy and industry. The highest emission STAG_TECH scenario assesses the impact of the technology and end-of-pipe reduction measures in the European Union, by considering historical fuel consumption, along with a stagnation of technology with constant emission factors since 1970, and assuming no further abatement measures and improvement imposed by European emission standards. The lowest emission STAG_ENERGY scenario evaluates the impact of increased fuel consumption by considering unchanged energy consumption since the year 1970, but assuming the technological development, end-of-pipe reductions, fuel mix and energy efficiency of 2010. Our scenario analysis focuses on the three most important and most regulated sectors (power generation, manufacturing industry and road transport), which are subject to multi-pollutant European Union Air Quality regulations. Stagnation of technology and air pollution reduction measures at 1970 levels would have led to 129aEuro-% (or factor 2.3) higher SO2, 71aEuro-% higher NOx and 69aEuro-% higher PM2.5 emissions in Europe (EU27), demonstrating the large role that technology has played in reducing emissions in 2010. However, stagnation of energy consumption at 1970 levels, but with 2010 fuel mix and energy efficiency, and assuming current (year 2010) technology and emission control standards, would have lowered today's NOx emissions by ca. 38aEuro-%, SO2 by 50aEuro-% and PM2.5 by 12aEuro-% in Europe. A reduced-form chemical transport model is applied to calculate regional and global levels of aerosol and ozone concentrations and to assess the associated impact of air quality improvements on human health and crop yield loss, showing substantial impacts of EU technologies and standards inside as well as outside Europe. We assess that the interplay of policy and technological advance in Europe had substantial benefits in Europe, but also led to an important improvement of particulate matter air quality in other parts of the world.
机译：Edgarv4.3.1（全球大气研究的排放数据库）气体（SO2，NOx，CO，非甲烷挥发性有机化合物和NH3）的全局人为排放库存和颗粒（PM10，PM2.5，黑色和有机碳）空气污染物在1970 - 2010年期间，用于开发回顾性空气污染排放情景，以量化能耗和效率变化，技术进步和管道终止减排措施的作用及其对健康和作物产量的影响欧洲和全球范围。参考EDGARV4.3.1排放包括在过去的4AEURO - 几十年中观察和报告的活动数据，燃料消耗和空气污染减排技术的变化，与第1层和特定的地区的第2层排放因子相结合。两种进一步的回顾性方案评估了政策和行业的相互作用。最高排放斯塔基学区的情景评估了通过考虑历史燃料消耗的技术和管道终端减少措施的影响，以及自1970年以来的持续排放因子的停滞，并假设没有进一步的减排措施欧洲排放标准施加的改善。最低排放稳压场景评估了自1970年代以来的不变能耗来评估增加的燃料消耗的影响，但假设技术开发，管道终止减少，燃料混合和能源效率为2010年。我们的情景分析侧重于三个最重要，最受监管的部门（发电，制造业和公路运输），受到多污染欧盟空气质量法规的影响。 1970年水平的技术和空气污染降低措施将导致129Aeuro-％（或2.3）的SO2，71Aeuro％较高的NOx和69Aeuro％更高的PM2.5欧洲排放量（EU27），展示了巨大的作用该技术在2010年减少排放量。然而，1970年级别的能耗停滞，但2010年燃料混合和能效，假设当前（2010年）技术和排放控制标准，将降低CA的NOx排放量。 38Aeuro-％，SO2 50Aeuro-％和PM2.5在欧洲12AEURO-％。应用了减少的化学传输模型来计算区域和全球气溶胶和臭氧浓度水平，并评估空气质量改善对人类健康和作物产量损失的相关影响，表现出欧盟技术和标准的大量影响以及内部的标准欧洲以外。我们评估欧洲政策和技术进步的相互作用在欧洲具有大量效益，而且还导致了世界其他地区的微粒物质空气质量的重要提高。

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  • 来源
    《Atmospheric chemistry and physics》 |2016年第6期|共17页
  • 作者

    Crippa Monica; Janssens-Maenhout Greet; Dentener Frank; Guizzardi Diego; Sindelarova Katerina; Muntean Marilena; Van Dingenen Rita; Granier Claire;

  • 作者单位

    European Commiss Joint Res Ctr Inst Environm &

    Sustainabil Via Fermi 2749 I-21027 Ispra Italy;

    European Commiss Joint Res Ctr Inst Environm &

    Sustainabil Via Fermi 2749 I-21027 Ispra Italy;

    European Commiss Joint Res Ctr Inst Environm &

    Sustainabil Via Fermi 2749 I-21027 Ispra Italy;

    European Commiss Joint Res Ctr Inst Environm &

    Sustainabil Via Fermi 2749 I-21027 Ispra Italy;

    Univ Paris 06 Univ Versailles St Quentin CNRS INSU LATMOS IPSL Paris France;

    European Commiss Joint Res Ctr Inst Environm &

    Sustainabil Via Fermi 2749 I-21027 Ispra Italy;

    European Commiss Joint Res Ctr Inst Environm &

    Sustainabil Via Fermi 2749 I-21027 Ispra Italy;

    Univ Paris 06 Univ Versailles St Quentin CNRS INSU LATMOS IPSL Paris France;

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  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 大气科学（气象学）;
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