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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society >Weather regimes and analogues downscaling of seasonal precipitation for the 21st century: A case study over Israel
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Weather regimes and analogues downscaling of seasonal precipitation for the 21st century: A case study over Israel

机译：20世纪季节降水的天气制度和模拟镇压：以以色列为例

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Global climate models provide only partial information on local-scale phenomenon, such as precipitation, primarily due to their coarse resolution. In this study, statistical downscaling algorithms, based on both weather regimes and past analogues, are operated for 18 Israeli rain gauges with an altitude ranging between -200 and similar to 1,000 m above sea level (ASL). To project seasonal precipitation over Israel and its hydrologic basins, the algorithms are applied to six Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models for the end of the 21st century, according to the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The downscaled models can capture quite well the seasonal precipitation distribution, though with underestimation in winter and overestimation in spring. All models display a significant reduction of seasonal precipitation for the 21st century according to both scenarios. The winter reductions for the end of the century and the RCP8.5 scenario are found to be similar to 22 and similar to 37% according to the weather regimes and the analogues downscaling methods, respectively. Spring reductions are found to be similar to 10-20% larger than winter reductions. It is shown that the projected reduction results from a decrease in the frequency of the rain-bearing systems, as well as a decrease in the average daily precipitation intensity. The areas with the largest reductions in seasonal precipitation are found over the central mountains, the Mediterranean coastal area, and the Sea of Galilee hydrologic basins, which are the main fresh-water aquifers and reservoirs of Israel. The statistical downscaling methods applied in this study can be easily transferred to other regions where long-term data sets of observed precipitation are available. This study and others may serve as a basis for priority and policy setting toward better climate adaptation with associated uncertainties related to the methods used and nonstationary of the climate system.
机译：全球气候模型仅提供有关本地规模现象的部分信息，例如降水，主要是由于它们的粗糙分辨率。在本研究中，基于天气制度和过去类似物的统计缩小算法被运营18以色列雨量仪，高度在-200之间，与海平面（ASL）高1000米。根据RCP4.5和RCP8.5场景，将算法应用于以色列及其水文盆地的季节降水及其水文盆地，算法应用于21世纪末的六个耦合模型相互比较的项目阶段5（CMIP5）模型。缩小的模型可以相当捕获季节性降水分布，但在冬季和春季高估时受到低估。所有型号均根据这两种情况显示21世纪的季节降水显着降低。本世纪末和RCP8.5场景的冬季减少相似于22且与37％相似，根据天气制度和类似物缩小方法。发现春季减少类似于比冬季减少的10-20％。结果表明，投影的降低导致雨轴承系统频率的减少，以及平均每日降水强度的降低。在中央山脉，地中海沿海地区和加利利水文盆地中，季节性降水减少最大的地区，是以色列的主要淡水含水层和水库。在本研究中应用的统计缩小方法可以很容易地转移到其他地区，其中可获得观察到的降水量的长期数据集。本研究和其他人可以作为优先级和政策制定对更好的气候适应性的依据，并与有关与气候系统的方法和非间断性的相关的不确定性。

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