Quantitative Estimates of the Impact of the Most Important Factors on Global Climate Change over the Past 150 Years

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Quantitative Estimates of the Impact of the Most Important Factors on Global Climate Change over the Past 150 Years

机译：过去150年来全球气候变化对全球气候变化影响的影响的定量估计

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We propose using multiple regression to create a statistical model for describing climate change under the influence of specified climate-forming factors. This model provides not only estimates of the temporal evolution of global temperature, but also a set of corresponding confidence intervals with a high level of statistical significance (probability). Eliminating the linear trend of climatic temperature series (CRUTEM) and atmospheric CO2 concentration allows an objective quantitative assessment of the impact of natural factors on climate change. The global CRUTEM temperature responds quasi-synchronously to the fluctuations in the average surface temperature of the North Atlantic (AMO index); however, to changes in solar activity (Wolf numbers), it does so with a delay of approximately 15 years. The linear trend of increasing CO2 concentration in the atmosphere explains almost all the interannual variability and reflects the linear trend of global temperature, but covers only part of its interannual variability.

机译：我们建议使用多元回归来创建统计模型，用于描述规定的气候形成因素的影响下的气候变化。该模型不仅提供了全球温度的时间演变的估计，而且还提供了一组具有高统计显着性（概率）的相应置信区间。消除气候温度系列（Crutem）和大气二氧化碳浓度的线性趋势允许客观定量评估自然因素对气候变化的影响。全球Crutem温度对北大西洋（AMO指数）平均表面温度的波动进行了响应。然而，为了变化太阳能活动（狼号码），它会延迟大约15年。增加大气中CO2浓度的线性趋势几乎解释了所有续际变异性，并反映了全球温度的线性趋势，但仅涵盖其持续可变性的一部分。

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《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》 |2019年第9期|共7页
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正文语种 eng
中图分类大气科学（气象学）;海洋学;
关键词
climate change; statistical climate models; estimates of the factors of climate change; climate regression model;

机译：气候变化;统计气候模型;估计气候变化因素;气候回归模型;

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1. Quantitative Estimates of the Impact of the Most Important Factors on Global Climate Change over the Past 150 Years [J] . Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics . 2019,第9期

机译：过去150年来全球气候变化对全球气候变化影响的影响的定量估计
2. Investigating the respective impacts of groundwater exploitation and climate change on wetland extension over 150 years [J] . Antoine Armandine Les Landes, Luc Aquilina, Jo De Ridder, Journal of Hydrology . 2014,第Null期

机译：调查150年以来地下水开采和气候变化对湿地扩展的各自影响
3. Predicting impacts of global climate change on intraspecific genetic diversity benefits from realistic dispersal estimates [J] . Paul E. Duckett, Adam J. Stow Australian Journal of Zoology . 2013,第6期

机译：现实的传播估计可预测全球气候变化对种内遗传多样性的影响
4. On the uncertainty of estimating global climate change and its potential impacts on vegetation [C] . Kainuma, M., Matsuoka, Fuzzy Systems, 1995. International Joint Conference of the Fourth IEEE International Conference on Fuzzy Systems and The Second International Fuzzy Engineering Symposium., Proceedings of 1995 IEEE International Conference on . 1995

机译：关于估计全球气候变化的不确定性及其对植被的潜在影响
5. Global environmental change: What are the impacts of climate change and land cover change on different ecosystems? [D] . Southworth, Jane. 2000

机译：全球环境变化：气候变化和土地覆盖变化对不同的生态系统有什么影响？
6. Toward a Quantitative Estimate of Future Heat Wave Mortality under Global Climate Change [O] . Roger D. Peng, Jennifer F. Bobb, Claudia Tebaldi, 2011

机译：对全球气候变化下未来热浪死亡率的定量估计
7. The oceans mediate the response of global climate to natural and anthropogenic forcings. Yet for the past 2,000 years — a key interval for understanding the present and future climate response to these forcings — global sea surface temperature changes and the underlying driving mechanisms are poorly constrained. Here we present a global synthesis of sea surface temperatures for the Common Era (ce) derived from 57 individual marine reconstructions that meet strict quality control criteria. We observe a cooling trend from 1 to 1800 ce that is robust against explicit tests for potential biases in the reconstructions. Between 801 and 1800 ce, the surface cooling trend is qualitatively consistent with an independent synthesis of terrestrial temperature reconstructions, and with a sea surface temperature composite derived from an ensemble of climate model simulations using best estimates of past external radiative forcings. Climate simulations using single and cumulative forcings suggest that the ocean surface cooling trend from 801 to 1800 ce is not primarily a response to orbital forcing but arises from a high frequency of explosive volcanism. Our results show that repeated clusters of volcanic eruptions can induce a net negative radiative forcing that results in a centennial and global scale cooling trend via a decline in mixed-layer oceanic heat content. [O] . McGregor, Helen V., Evans, Michael N., Goosse, Hugues, 2015

机译：海洋调节了全球气候对自然和人为强迫的响应。然而，在过去的2,000年中（这是了解当前和未来气候对这些强迫的响应的关键间隔），全球海表温度变化及其潜在的驱动机制受到的约束很有限。在这里，我们提出了一个共同的时期（ce）的全球海面温度的全球综合，该综合来自57个符合严格质量控制标准的海洋重建项目。我们观察到从1到1800 ce的冷却趋势，对于显式测试重建中潜在的偏倚而言，该趋势很稳健。在801至1800 ce之间，表面降温趋势在质量上与地面温度重建的独立合成以及从使用过去外部辐射强迫的最佳估计的气候模型模拟集合推导出的海面温度合成在质量上是一致的。使用单一和累积强迫的气候模拟表明，从801到1800 ce的海洋表面冷却趋势主要不是对轨道强迫的反应，而是爆炸性火山爆发的频繁发生。我们的结果表明，火山喷发的反复簇可引起净的负辐射强迫，这会导致混合层海洋热量降低而导致百年和全球规模的降温趋势。
8. Global Climate Change Response Program. Part 1. Potential Effects of GlobalChange on Chlorophyll alpha Concentrations in a Southwestern Desert Reservoir: Las Vegas Bay, Lake Mead, Nevada. Part 2. Simulated Impacts of a Double CO2 Climate on the Location o [R] . Lieberman, D. M., Medina, J. G. 1997

机译：全球气候变化应对计划。第1部分。全球变化对西南沙漠水库中叶绿素α浓度的潜在影响：内华达州米德湖拉斯维加斯湾。第二部分。二氧化碳气候对地点的模拟影响o

Quantitative Estimates of the Impact of the Most Important Factors on Global Climate Change over the Past 150 Years

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