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Trade as a confidence-building measure in protracted conflicts: the cases of Georgia and Moldova compared

机译：贸易作为旷日持续冲突的建立信任措施：格鲁吉亚和摩尔多瓦的案件比较

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Academic and policy literature on the post-Soviet region's protracted conflicts frequently assumes that trade is an effective confidence-building measure (CBM) and as such also has the potential to facilitate progress toward conflict settlement. We probe these assertions through a detailed empirical comparison of the effects that regulated and unregulated forms of trade have had in the cases of Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Transnistria. Relying on a wealth of primary and secondary sources, including 29 semi-structured interviews, as well as direct and participant observation, we find that, absent political will by authorities on the ground and their respective international partners, trade remains by-and-large unregulated and has limited and generally not sustainable confidence-building and stabilizing effects, as evidenced by the cases of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Where local and geopolitical conditions are more conducive, trade becomes more regulated and significantly contributes to confidence building and stabilization and has some positive spill-over effects into non-economic areas of confidence building, as is evident from Transnistria. This finding has potentially important implications for other cases in which governments and relevant regional and international actors are faced with difficult choices over whether and how to engage with unrecognized entities, such as in Ukraine.
机译：苏联地区的学术和政策文献持久的冲突经常认为，贸易是一种有效的建立信任措施（CBM），因此也有可能促进冲突解决进展。我们通过详细的经验比较探讨了在阿布哈兹，南奥塞雷蒂亚和跨境贸易案件中规范和不受管制形式的贸易效应的实证比较。依靠大量的小学和二级来源，包括29个半结构化访谈，以及直接和参与观察，我们发现，当局就理由和各自的国际合作伙伴而缺乏政治意愿，贸易仍然是大的由于阿比哈萨里亚和南奥塞梯的病例证明，不受管制的并且一般不受可持续的信任和稳定的效果。如果地方和地缘政治条件更有利于，贸易变得更加受管制，大大有助于信心建设和稳定，并与跨境建设的非经济地区具有一些积极的溢出效应。这一发现对其他案件具有潜在的重要意义，其中政府和相关区域和国际行动者面临困难的选择是否以及如何与无法识别的实体互动，例如在乌克兰。

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