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首页> 外文期刊>Natural Hazards >A GIS-based tool for flood damage assessment and delineation of a methodology for future risk assessment: case study for Annotto Bay, Jamaica
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A GIS-based tool for flood damage assessment and delineation of a methodology for future risk assessment: case study for Annotto Bay, Jamaica

机译：基于GIS的洪水损伤评估和对未来风险评估方法的描绘：牙买加Annotto Bay的案例研究

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Flood risk assessments and damage estimations form integral parts of the disaster risk management in Jamaica, owing its vulnerability to hydrometeorological hazards. Although island wide damage and risk assessments have been carried out for major flood events in Jamaica, few studies have been conducted for the creation of damage and risk maps for vulnerable areas. In this study, a risk-based tool was developed by transferring a proven methodology for flood risk assessment in Flanders, called LATIS, to areas with limited data resources. The town of Annotto Bay was chosen as case study due to its vulnerability to coastal and riverine flooding. The model uses input parameters such as flood data, land use, and socioeconomic data and rainfall values to estimate the damage. The flooding of 2001, caused by tropical storm Michelle, as well as a storm surge with a 100-year return period, was input for the model in order to estimate damage from fresh and saltwater for Annotto Bay. The produced maps show the spatial variation of the damage costs, which correlates with the flood depths. The total calculated damage cost from the freshwater flood of 2001 in the study area was estimated just over USD 7 million. Saltwater damages were calculated at USD 30 million. Although validation of the exact damage costs was not possible, the damage spread and number of affected elements were accurate. The model output also shows the potential number of people who would be killed as a result of the event, which was calculated at only 2 casualties for freshwater. Since in reality no one died, this low estimate can be considered accurate. The casualties caused by the saltwater flooding with a return period of 100 years were estimated at 150 people killed. The results of this approach can be extended to other vulnerable areas of the island having topographical and geographical similarities and being affected by similar hydrometeorological events. Hence, the method allows damage assessment for data-sparse regions, aiding in planning and mitigation measures for flood-prone communities.
机译：洪水风险评估和损害估计在牙买加灾害风险管理中形成了一体的部分，因为它脆弱的水形气象危害。虽然在牙买加的主要洪水事件中进行了广泛的伤害和风险评估，但已经为脆弱地区的损坏和风险地图进行了很少的研究。在这项研究中，通过将普通的洪水风险评估中的洪水风险评估方法转移到具有有限的数据资源的地区来开发了一种基于风险的工具。由于其对沿海和河流洪水的脆弱性，因此选择了Annottoto Bay镇作为案例研究。该模型使用诸如洪水数据，土地利用和社会经济数据以及降雨量的输入参数来估计损坏。由热带风暴米歇尔引起的2001年的洪水以及带有100年回报期的风暴浪涌，为该模型输入，以估算新鲜和盐水的损坏。所产生的地图显示了损坏成本的空间变化，与洪水深度相关。研究区2001年淡水洪水的总计算损害成本估计仅超过700万美元。盐水损失计算为3000万美元。尽管验证确切的损伤成本是不可能的，但受影响元素的损害传播和数量是准确的。模型输出也显示了由于事件而被杀死的潜在数量，这是仅在淡水中仅计算2伤亡人员。由于实际上没有人死亡，因此这种低估的估计可以被认为是准确的。盐水洪水造成的伤亡人员造成了100年的返回期估计为150人死亡。这种方法的结果可以扩展到岛的其他脆弱地区，具有地形和地理相似性，受到类似水力学事件的影响。因此，该方法允许对数据稀疏地区进行损害评估，同意洪水易受社区的规划和缓解措施。

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