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ENSO-induced drought hazards and wet spells and related agricultural losses across Anhui province, China

机译：恩斯诱导跨安徽省的干旱危害和湿法危害及相关农业损失

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摘要

Using daily precipitation data from 25 meteorological stations for a period of 1961-2014, spatiotemporal features of wet spells and droughts and related impacts on agricultural production across Anhui province, China, were investigated with a linear regressive technique, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the modified Mann-Kendall trend test method. Results indicated that: (1) ENSO-induced wet spells and droughts accounted for 83 and 68% of the total wet spells and droughts and droughts were closely related to La Nina events of the same and subsequent years. Wet spells, however, were closely related to El Nino events; (2) a larger variability was found in the SPEI, showing larger flood and drought risks during spring and autumn than those during summer and winter seasons. Generally, wet spells in winter were relatively high and the drying tendency was identified in winter during recent years; (3) relations between SPEI and SSTA were shifting during warm and cold phases of ENSO. The warm phase of ENSO tended to have larger impacts on SPEI in southern Anhui province, and the cold phase of ENSO had a greater impact on the SPEI variation in northern Anhui province. Comparatively, SSTA had an increasing impact on wet spells and droughts with increasing lag time; and (4) the reduction of rice and maize production in southern Anhui province was found mainly during 1 year earlier to the ENSO events. The amount of reduction of maize was larger in northern Anhui province and Jianghuai region, years with maize reduction were more often in southern Anhui province. Irrigation in central Anhui province can mitigate the negative effects of wet spells and droughts.
机译：使用来自25个气象站的日常降水数据，为1961 - 2014年的25个气象站，通过线性回归技术研究了湿法法规和对农业生产的潮湿法规和干旱和相关影响的影响，标准化降水蒸发指数（SPEI ）和改进的Mann-Kendall趋势试验方法。结果表明：（1）Enso诱导的湿法和干旱占83和68％的湿法法规和干旱和干旱的68％与La Nina事件相同和随后的年份密切相关。然而，潮湿的法术与El Nino事件密切相关; （2）SPEI中发现了更大的可变性，在春季和秋季和冬季季节期间，春季和秋季的洪水和干旱风险较大。通常，冬季的湿法均相对较高，近年来冬天鉴定了干燥趋势; （3）SPEI和SSTA之间的关系在ENSO的温暖和冷阶段换水。 Enso的温暖阶段倾向于安徽省南部对Spei产生了更大的影响，恩索的冷阶段对安徽省北部的Spei变异产生了更大的影响。相比之下，SSTA对潮湿的法术和干旱的影响越来越大; （4）南部南部的稻米和玉米产量的减少主要是在enso事件上午1年前发现的。安徽省北部和江淮地区北部的玉米减少量较大，玉米减少多年来往往是安徽省南部。安徽省中部灌溉可以减轻湿法和干旱的负面影响。

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