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首页> 外文期刊>North American Journal of Fisheries Management >Using Scenarios to Assess Possible Future Impacts of Invasive Species in the Laurentian Great Lakes
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Using Scenarios to Assess Possible Future Impacts of Invasive Species in the Laurentian Great Lakes

机译：使用场景来评估劳伦斯伟大的湖泊中的侵入性物种可能的未来影响

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摘要

The expected impacts of invasive species are key considerations in selecting policy responses to potential invasions. But predicting the impacts of invasive species is daunting, particularly in large systems threatened by multiple invasive species, such as North America's Laurentian Great Lakes. We developed and evaluated a scenario-building process that relied on an expert panel to assess possible future impacts of aquatic invasive species on recreational fishing in the Great Lakes. To maximize its usefulness to policy makers, this process was designed to be implemented relatively rapidly and considered a range of species. The expert panel developed plausible, internally consistent invasion scenarios for five aquatic invasive species, along with subjective probabilities of those scenarios. We describe these scenarios and evaluate this approach for assessing future invasive species impacts. The panel held diverse opinions about the likelihood of the scenarios, and only one scenario with impacts on sport fish species was considered likely by most of the experts. These outcomes are consistent with the literature on scenario building, which advocates for developing a range of plausible scenarios in decision-making because the uncertainty of future conditions makes the likelihood of any particular scenario low. We believe that this scenario-building approach could contribute to policy decisions about whether and how to address the possible impacts of invasive species. In this case, scenarios could allow policy makers to narrow the range of possible impacts on Great Lakes fisheries they consider and help set a research agenda for further refining invasive species predictions.
机译：入侵物种的预期影响是选择对潜在侵权的政策反应的关键因素。但预测侵入物种的影响是令人生畏的，特别是在大量侵入性物种威胁的大型系统中，例如北美的劳伦坦大湖泊。我们开发并评估了依赖于专家小组的情景建设过程，以评估水生侵入性物种在大湖中休闲捕捞的未来影响。为了使其对政策制定者的实用性最大化，这一过程旨在相对迅速地实施并考虑一系列物种。专家面板开发了合理的，内部一致的侵入场景，适用于五种水生侵入物种，以及这些情景的主观概率。我们描述了这些场景，并评估了评估未来侵入物种影响的方法。小组对情景的可能性持有不同的意见，并且只有一个对体育鱼类的影响的情景被大部分专家都被认为是可能的。这些结果与情景建设的文献一致，这倡导在决策中制定一系列合理的情景，因为未来条件的不确定性使得任何特定情景低的可能性。我们认为，这种情景建设方法可能导致关于是否以及如何解决侵入物种可能影响的政策决定。在这种情况下，方案可以允许政策制定者缩小他们考虑的大湖泊渔业可能影响的范围，并帮助设定研究议程以获得进一步精炼侵入物种预测。

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