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How government-led land consolidation efforts achieve grain production stability? An empirical analysis in Hubei Province, China

机译：政府主导的土地合并努力如何实现粮食生产稳定性？ 中国湖北省的实证分析

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摘要

China has been conducting massive land consolidation (LC) projects since the late 1990s to ensure national food security which has been one of the common issues in the world. How the implementation of LC projects affects grain production stability is a question should be answered. Basing on an empirical analysis at the county level in Hubei Province, China, this paper separates the trend component and the fluctuation component from a time series of grain production over 1991-2016 using the H-P filtering method. Then we estimate the impacts of LC projects and climate change on the trend and fluctuation rate of grain production for the entire Hubei Province. Moreover, the effects on the production of different major crops for the central, eastern, southwestern, northwestern and northern areas are also examined, respectively. The results show that: (1) the production trends for five subareas and the whole area all have followed a trajectory of "increase-decrease-increase" from 1991 to 2016. The magnitude of fluctuation rate was large but became smaller in recent years. (2) The contribution of LC to the long-term trends of grain production for the entire samples in Hubei Province mainly benefits from the growth in the cultivated land area through LC; more LC investment and newly-added arable land area promote the sudden increase in grain production above the long-term trends, while the impacts of LC area are negative. (3) The impacts of LC on the major crop production vary across areas. LC exerts significant impacts on the production of major crops in the central and eastern Hubei, and this effect persists to the following year. Similarly, this influence also exists in the southwestern and northern area, while becomes insignificant in the following year. No significant effect of LC variables is found in the northwestern area. These findings may provide reference for the government to address LC inefficiency and food security problems, and an effective and innovative mechanism combining the agricultural production, land consolidation and meteorological factors needs to be established to ensure food security and long-term and stable agricultural production. In addition, the regional difference in natural conditions and LC orientations should also be considered.
机译：自20世纪90年代后期以来，中国一直在进行大规模的土地巩固（LC）项目，以确保全国粮食安全成为世界上普通问题之一。如何实施LC项目影响粮食生产稳定是一个问题应该得到回答。基于中国湖北省县级的实证分析，本文将趋势成分和波动部件与1991 - 2016年的一系列谷物生产中的趋势分量和波动部件分开。然后我们估计LC项目和气候变化对整个湖北省粮食产量趋势和波动率的影响。此外，还分别研究了对中央，东南，西南，西北和北方地区不同主要作物的影响。结果表明：（1）五个蛛网和整个领域的生产趋势都遵循了1991年至2016年的“增加 - 减少 - 增加”的轨迹。波动率的大小很大，但近年来变得越来越小。 （2）LC对湖北省整个样本的粮食生产长期趋势的贡献主要从耕地面积的增长通过LC;更多LC投资和新添加的耕地面积促进粮食产量突然增加，以上长期趋势，而LC面积的影响是消极的。 （3）LC对主要作物产量的影响各不均匀。 LC对湖北省中部和东部的主要作物产生重大影响，这一效果持续到持续的一年。同样，这种影响也存在于西南和北部地区，同时在第二年内变得微不足道。在西北地区发现了LC变量的显着效果。这些调查结果可以为政府提供参考，以解决LC低效率和粮食安全问题，需要建立一个有效和创新的机制，以确保粮食安全和长期稳定的农业生产。此外，还应考虑自然条件和LC取向的区域差异。

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