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Disequilibrium in the real estate market: Evidence from Poland

机译：房地产市场的不平衡：来自波兰的证据

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摘要

The article analyzes the situation on the Polish residential real estate market as a developing market with emphasis on market demand and market supply which were evaluated in two separate approaches. States of disequilibrium were analyzed on a local real estate market in the Polish Region of Lower Silesia based on the data supplied by the Promocja Center for Economic and Organizational Implementation (Sekocenbud) and the Register of Real Estate Prices and Values. The study aims to verify the hypothesis postulating the occurrence of an information cascade on the real estate market and its influence on the number of transactions. The above hypothesis was verified with the use correlation methods and the Granger causality test. The results point to: 1) long-term disequilibrium on the Polish real estate market, 2) the presence of synergistic systemic processes with time lags manifested in property prices, 3) the influence of an information cascade on the number of concluded transactions.
机译：本文分析了波兰住宅房地产市场作为发展中国家，重视市场需求和市场供应，这些市场在两种单独的方法中评估。 基于Promocja经济和组织执行中心（Sekocenbud）提供的数据以及房地产价格和价值登记册，分析了较低硅片波兰地区的当地房地产市场的陈述。 该研究旨在核实假设假设房地产市场上信息级联的发生及其对交易数量的影响。 通过使用相关方法和GRANGER因果关系测试，验证了上述假设。 结果指出：1）在波兰房地产市场上的长期不平衡，2）存在协同系统性流程与时间滞后表现在物业价格上，3）信息级联的影响级联的汇总交易数量。

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